聯準會迎首位「加密派掌門人」？沃許重返理事會，對比特幣影響幾何？

Author: Max, Crypto City Senate confirms board appointment, Warsh poised to take the helm at the Fed The U.S. political and financial landscape saw a major turning point in May 2026. On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate voted 51 to 45 to officially confirm Kevin Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors, paving the final mile for him to succeed current Chair Jerome Powell. Warsh’s term on the Board will span 14 years, running from February 2026 to 2040. In a highly partisan vote, Republicans supported him unanimously, while the only Democrat to vote in favor was Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman, breaking the tradition of bipartisan consensus typically seen in Fed Chair nominations. With Powell’s four-year term as Chair set to expire this Friday, the Senate is expected to hold a separate confirmation vote on Wednesday for Warsh to serve as Chair. According to the current layout by Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the probability of Warsh’s confirmation is extremely high. Although Powell is stepping down as Chair, he has indicated he will remain on the Board until 2028, citing a desire to maintain organizational stability and independence until the Department of Justice concludes its investigation into the Fed headquarters renovation project. This rare "two-chair" scenario adds a layer of complex political maneuvering to the future implementation of U.S. monetary policy. Crypto asset background in the spotlight, Warsh views Bitcoin as a policy alarm Unlike previous Fed officials who held skeptical views on digital assets, Warsh’s deep ties to the cryptocurrency industry have caught the market's attention. According to his financial disclosure report filed with the Office of Government Ethics, Warsh holds a net worth exceeding 100 million, with a portfolio that includes multiple Web3-related investments. These projects include the prediction market platform Polymarket, blockchain infrastructure company Tenderly, and Bitcoin payment startup Flashnet. Additionally, he holds equity in digital asset management firm Bitwise and the stablecoin project Basis. While Warsh has pledged to divest these assets upon taking office, his open stance toward cryptocurrency is an undeniable fact. Warsh has publicly stated that Bitcoin is a transformative technology, even describing it as an "excellent policeman for financial policy." He believes that Bitcoin’s price volatility reflects market confidence in the Fed’s handling of inflation and monetary credibility. During a Senate Banking Committee hearing, he emphasized that cryptocurrency has deeply permeated the structure of the U.S. financial system, noting that it is part of the broader financial services industry rather than just a marginalized speculative tool. Rate cut expectations collapse, inflation shadows and the return of hawks hit the market Despite President Trump’s constant pressure on the Fed to significantly cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, Warsh’s rise has sent market expectations for loose policy to freezing point. Warsh is known for his hawkish image regarding inflation risks during his time on the Board. While he reiterated his commitment to maintaining the Fed’s independence during recent hearings, he also expressed concern over the rapidly expanding balance sheet and the overly loose interest rate environment. As a result, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders have significantly scaled back expectations for rate cuts in 2026 and 2027. The market currently predicts that interest rates will remain in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, with only a 2.9% probability of a rate cut. Economic data has further exacerbated this anxiety. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April rose 3.8% year-over-year, higher than the market expectation of 3.7%, marking a three-year high. Coupled with rising oil prices due to tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the risk of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered energy inflation alarms. Under this macroeconomic pressure, both Bitcoin and gold have given back their gains. Bitcoin’s price fell more than 1.5% following the news, dropping below 80,900 from a daily high of 82,098. Gold and silver also saw declines of 0.7% and 2% respectively, reflecting investor fear of a prolonged high-interest-rate environment. Critical period for regulatory bills, the future of Web3 under Warsh’s tenure Warsh’s term comes at a critical juncture for U.S. cryptocurrency regulation. The Senate Banking Committee is expected to deliberate on the CLARITY Act this Thursday. This 309-page draft attempts to delineate the jurisdiction between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and includes amendments regarding the prohibition of stablecoin yields. Although the bill faces significant opposition from labor organizations and the traditional banking industry, the market generally believes that a Fed