Kalshi 獲 10 億美元融資！預測市場龍頭估值 220 億美元，引發華爾街關注

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Author: Fenrir, Crypto City Kalshi raises $1 billion, valuation soars to $22 billion The US prediction market platform Kalshi has officially confirmed the completion of a new $1 billion funding round, pushing its company valuation to $22 billion and making it one of the most high-profile startups in fintech and the crypto market in recent years. This financing round also signifies that the Prediction Market is officially transitioning from a niche speculative tool into the mainstream financial capital landscape. According to a Bloomberg report, the funds from this round will primarily be used for institutional market expansion, regulatory compliance, global market deployment, and the establishment of larger-scale trading and clearing infrastructure. Kalshi has also clearly stated that its core goal for the next phase is to attract more traditional financial institutions and professional investors into the prediction market ecosystem. Kalshi is currently one of the few legal event trading platforms in the US regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Users can place bets on elections, interest rates, inflation, wars, sporting events, and even economic data. The platform is essentially not a traditional cryptocurrency exchange, but rather closer to a "probability trading market." The news of this funding round has once again drawn market attention to the trend of "financialization of prediction markets." Event trading, once viewed as entertainment or gambling, is gradually evolving into a new tool for information pricing. From Trump's election to Fed interest rates, prediction markets begin to influence Wall Street Over the past year, as uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election, the Middle East conflict, and Fed policy has increased, the influence of prediction markets has expanded rapidly. Many investment institutions have begun incorporating data from Kalshi and Polymarket into their trading and risk assessment models. Especially during the US presidential election, the win probabilities for Trump and the Democratic candidate on Kalshi often reflected market sentiment faster than traditional polls, leading prediction markets to be increasingly viewed as "real-time public opinion and risk pricing systems." Unlike traditional financial markets, the core logic of a prediction market is not corporate earnings, but the "probability of an event occurring." Investors buy and sell contracts to bet directly on future events. The closer the price is to 100%, the more the market believes the event is likely to happen. This model has also attracted a large number of quantitative trading teams and institutional capital for research. Some Wall Street funds have even begun using prediction market data to preemptively position themselves in stock, energy, and bond markets. Market analysts point out that the surge in Kalshi's valuation essentially reflects the capital market's repricing of "information trading." As AI and social media accelerate the speed of information dissemination, platforms capable of reflecting market sentiment in real-time are beginning to possess new financial value. Kalshi pushes for institutionalization, attempting to distance itself from crypto prediction markets It is worth noting that Kalshi's direction following this funding round is clearly diverging from crypto-native prediction markets. While platforms like Polymarket have high traffic and engagement, they currently cannot legally serve US users due to regulatory issues. In contrast, Kalshi focuses on a fully compliant path and is actively aligning itself with the traditional financial system. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour has repeatedly emphasized in the past that prediction markets should not just be speculative tools in the future, but should become "information infrastructure" within the financial market. This is why Kalshi has been actively building clearing systems, risk control frameworks, and institutional APIs in recent years. According to reports, Kalshi may further launch institutional-grade products in the future, including large-scale macroeconomic event markets, corporate earnings prediction markets, and more contracts linked to interest rates, inflation, and geopolitics. To some extent, Kalshi is attempting to repackage the act of "betting on the future" into a legitimate asset class within the financial market. Behind the prediction market boom, regulatory and ethical controversies heat up However, the rapid rise of prediction markets has also sparked regulatory and ethical controversies. Recently, a case in the US involving active-duty military personnel using classified information to profit from bets on Venezuelan military operations in a prediction market has once again drawn attention to insider trading and national security risks. Some US lawmakers have even begun discussing whether to restrict government officials and specific individuals from participating in event market trading. Furthermore, when prediction markets begin to involve wars, assassinations, pandemics, and political events, it raises questions about whether the market could potentially influence the real world in return. But supporters argue that the true value of prediction markets lies in their ability to reflect collective cognition faster than polls, media, and analysts. Some scholars even believe that future government and corporate decisions may use prediction market prices as risk indicators. Now that Kalshi has achieved a $22 billion valuation, it means Wall Street has begun to bet on one thing: the most valuable asset in the future may not be stocks, but the "ability to price the probability of the future." (The above content

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來源：區塊客

發佈：2026-05-11 11:22:06

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