Kalshi找川普前幕僚組遊說軍團！賭場業者先開槍，Polymarket同天被國會盯上

Americans for Fair Markets (AFM), an advocacy group supported by Kalshi, was officially launched on 5/22. Former White House Deputy Chief of Staff Taylor Budowich has been appointed as a strategic advisor, with the goal of promoting a federal-level regulatory framework for prediction markets while countering lobbying offensives from the gambling industry. On the same day, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer announced the launch of an insider trading investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket. (Previous coverage: Prediction Markets: Taiwan blocks Polymarket website again, cracking down on gambling related to the nine-in-one elections) (Background: First shot fired in prediction market ban! Massachusetts judge orders Kalshi to stop offering event contracts on sports) Key Highlights - Kalshi established the advocacy group AFM, with former White House Deputy Chief of Staff Budowich as advisor, to counter lobbying from casino operators. - On the same day, House Oversight Committee Chairman Comer launched an insider trading investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket, demanding records by 6/5. - Polymarket faces a series of recent crises: $600,000 lost in a smart contract hack, South Korea launching a review, Taiwanese users being prosecuted, and Minnesota passing legislation to ban the platform. The prediction market industry is being pulled in two directions: a lobbying war to seize the narrative on one side, and a compliance battle to address regulatory skepticism on the other. On 5/22, both battles began simultaneously. Kalshi announced the formation of Americans for Fair Markets (AFM), bringing on former White House Deputy Chief of Staff Taylor Budowich as a strategic advisor. Budowich previously managed White House communications, speechwriting, and cabinet affairs under Susie Wiles before departing last September. John Bivona, Head of Government Relations at Kalshi, stated: "Millions of Americans have made it clear that they want regulated, open, and fair prediction markets." Casino operators fire the first shot, Kalshi strikes back The launch of AFM was aggressive. A group called FairPredicts spent six figures on an advertising campaign against Kalshi in Washington D.C. a few days prior, backed by the American Gaming Association and led by former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. FairPredicts set up a website called KalshiLies.com, to which Kalshi immediately issued a cease-and-desist letter. Kalshi has spent nearly $500,000 lobbying Congress and the CFTC in 2026. AFM claims to be "well-funded," with a mission to counter "special interest groups protecting monopolies and spreading lies." It advocates that prediction market exchanges should be regulated at the federal level, supports bans on insider trading, and opposes markets related to war, terrorism, death, or assassination. The essence of this lobbying war is the jurisdiction of regulation: Should prediction markets fall under the CFTC, or under state-level gambling regulators? The answer to this question will determine their fate. Polymarket's recent status: Hacked, investigated, and banned On the same day AFM was launched, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer announced an insider trading investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket, sending letters to both CEOs demanding internal records by 6/5, including user identity verification, suspicious transaction monitoring, and offshore market access controls. The direct trigger for the investigation was the case of U.S. Army Special Forces Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who used classified intelligence regarding the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro to profit over $400,000 on Polymarket; he was indicted on 4/24. Additionally, over 80 Polymarket users placed bets hours before military actions in Iran were announced by the U.S. and Israel, with highly suspicious timing. Polymarket's recent turmoil extends beyond insider trading. On May 22, their UMA CTF Adapter smart contract was attacked, with 5,000 POL drained every 30 seconds, resulting in a loss of over $600,000. The Korea Communications Standards Commission also officially launched a review on the same day to examine whether Polymarket violates anti-gambling laws; South Korea may become the ninth country to block the platform. In Taiwan, users have already been awakened by search warrants due to gambling on the nine-in-one elections. At the state level, Minnesota signed the first law in the U.S. banning the operation of prediction markets on 5/19, which the Trump administration immediately challenged in court. Currently, 13 states have taken an active enforcement or litigation stance against prediction markets. While one side is forming lobbying groups to call for compliance, the other side has already received congressional investigation letters on their CEOs' desks. The speed at which the prediction market industry seeks compliance currently appears unable to keep pace with the speed at which they are being targeted.