Altcoin CEX Volume Ratio 自 2021 年牛市以來首次出現這種情況：是資金輪動還是熊市反彈？

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Reason to trust How Our News is Made Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Ad discliamer Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. The altcoin market is gaining strength as a growing number of assets beyond the major names have begun pushing higher, drawing attention back to the broader ecosystem after months of Bitcoin-dominated price action. GugaOnchain has identified a specific signal in the volume data that suggests the shift may be more structural than it first appears. A closer examination of the CEX Volume Ratio — which tracks trading volume across all altcoins excluding the top five assets: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Binance Coin — reveals what the analyst describes as an Altcoin Volume Increasing Trend. The signal is generated when the 30-day moving average of altcoin trading volume crosses above its 365-day moving average — a condition that filters out short-term noise and identifies sustained, trend-level increases in altcoin participation rather than isolated spikes driven by a single asset or event. That crossover is happening now. The yellow bars on GugaOnchain’s chart mark the periods when this condition has been active historically, and the current reading places the market in one of those periods. The significance of the signal is not simply that altcoin volume is rising. Volume rises and falls routinely. What matters is that the shorter-term trend has now exceeded the longer-term baseline — which suggests the increase in altcoin activity is broad-based, sustained, and significant enough to change the structural picture of where market participation is flowing. The Last Time This Signal Appeared at Scale, Altcoins Exploded. It Is Appearing Again The GugaOnchain analysis places the current volume signal in a historical context that gives it its full weight. When the yellow bars — indicating sustained short-term volume growth above the long-term baseline — appeared in clusters during the 2021 bull cycle, they coincided precisely with the most explosive altcoin seasons of that period and with Ethereum’s peak price levels. The signal did not merely precede the moves. It marked them in real time as capital rotated out of major caps and flooded into mid and low-cap altcoins that had been waiting for exactly that liquidity. The current reading suggests that rotation is beginning again. Retail and institutional interest is expanding beyond the top five assets — the CEX volume ratio data confirms that participation is broadening in a way that the 30-day versus 365-day crossover specifically identifies as sustained rather than temporary. The condition the analysis attaches to the forward outlook is the one that separates a genuine altseason from a false start. If the volume momentum holds and Ethereum’s price remains stable or continues rising, the combination provides strong confirmation that a broader altcoin rally is underway rather than a brief rotation that reverses quickly. The metric to watch is the purple line — the Volume Ratio itself. When that line breaks out above its established range, GugaOnchain identifies it as a leading signal for high-volatility, high-opportunity phases in the altcoin market. The yellow bars say the conditions are building. The purple line breakout would confirm that the opportunity has arrived. Altcoin Market Structure Begins Recovering From Capitulation The total crypto market cap, excluding the top 10 assets, continues to stabilize near the $200 billion level after months of persistent weakness across the broader altcoin market. The chart shows that altcoins remain well below the euphoric peaks reached during the 2024 expansion phase, but recent price action suggests the aggressive capitulation that defined late 2025 and early 2026 is beginning to lose momentum. One of the most important structural developments is the defense of the $160–$180 billion region. That zone acted as support multiple times throughout the recent correction and continues absorbing downside pressure despite repeated attempts to break lower. Buyers are gradually stepping back into the market, preventing a continuation of the broader downtrend. At the same time, the recovery remains incomplete. The total market cap still trades below the declining 50-week and 100-week moving averages, confirming that the broader altcoin structure has not yet transitioned back into a sustained bullish phase. Every recovery attempt into the $220–$260 billion region has faced renewed selling pressure, showing that supply remains active across the sector. Volume trends, however, are beginning to improve. Participation has stabilized after the sharp contraction seen earlier in the year, suggesting speculative interest is slowly returning to the broader market. A confirmed reclaim of the major weekly moving averages would strengthen the case for a broader altcoin rotation later in the cycle. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

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ID：b6683f229b

來源：NewsBTC

發佈：2026-05-12 01:30:24

分類：bearish · 導出分類 bearish

標的：BTC, ETH

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