1.42 億美元的新增 XRP 多單剛好走進了雙重頂

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XRP price rejected $1.50 for the second time in three weeks, drawing a textbook double top on the chart. Bulls answered with $142 million in fresh long bets. Hidden bearish RSI divergence and a 41% drop in long-term holder buying both back the chart’s warning. The leverage stack is sitting against every signal that matters. XRP Double Top at $1.50 Carries a Hidden Risk XRP’s 12-hour chart shows a double top pattern. A double top is a bearish reversal structure where price tests the same resistance twice and fails to break through. The first peak printed on April 17 at $1.50. The second peak arrived on May 10 at $1.51. Both rejected near the same level, with sharp pullbacks following each test. A double top warns that buyers have lost momentum. The pattern confirms only if the neckline breaks, which sits well below the current price. Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here. Beneath the price action sits a second bearish signal. Hidden bearish divergence appeared on the daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) between mid-February and May 10. The XRP price made lower highs while RSI made higher highs. The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of price changes. Hidden bearish divergence in a downtrend typically confirms continuation rather than reversal. The signal aligns with the double top. The pattern suggests the rally back near $1.50 was a relief bounce, not a trend change. XRP is up 7.5% over the past 30 days but still down 21% year to date. The larger trend remains bearish, which the divergence confirms. For now, the chart points one way. The derivatives data, however, points the opposite way. XRP Open Interest Jumped to $940 Million as Bulls Doubled Down While the chart turned bearish, derivatives positioning went the opposite way. XRP open interest measures the total value of outstanding derivatives contracts. The reading has surged from $798 million on April 29 to $940 million on May 11. That is $142 million in new longs piling in over the same window. XRP funding rate, the periodic payment between perpetual swap longs and shorts, has also flipped sharply positive. The reading jumped from 0.000503% on April 29 to 0.006%, a 12-fold increase. Strong positive funding signals long-side dominance and crowded leverage. The combination is unusual. Bulls are leveraging up at the exact moment the chart is showing classic distribution. If price corrects even mildly, this leverage stack becomes fuel for cascading liquidations. Broader market conditions compound the risk. The crypto market dropped over 2% on May 11 after Trump rejected Iran’s peace response. The post reignited macro risk-off across digital assets. A weak macro tape gives derivatives long positions less room to recover from any sudden flush. The question is whether spot buying can absorb a derivatives unwind. The on-chain data on long-term holders suggests it cannot. Hodlers Slowed Buying 41% Since the First Top in April While derivatives traders piled into longs, long-term holders cooled off. The hodler net position change tracks daily changes in XRP held by long-term holders. The metric typically captures wallets that have held the token for over 155 days. On April 12, the metric peaked at 260.18 million XRP, the highest daily accumulation in the past 30 days. By May 10, it had dropped to 152.6 million, a decline of roughly 41%. The reading has stayed depressed since early May, even as price moved higher. That is the opposite of what would happen if long-term holders were aggressively backing the rally. The takeaway is that spot accumulation has slowed sharply at the same time bulls have been adding leverage. The wallets with the longest track record are not chasing this move. This matters because of what is happening on the derivatives side. If long liquidations cascade, the slowing spot bid offers less of a cushion. The hodler base has been quietly stepping back, leaving the price more exposed. The XRP price chart itself becomes the final test. XRP Price Has $1.34 as the 11% Trapdoor Below the Double Top The 12-hour chart sits at $1.44 after the RSI-led pullback. The immediate resistance is $1.50, the April 17 high, and $1.51, the May 10 high. A clean 12-hour close above $1.51 would invalidate the double top and open $1.54 as the next test. The downside structure is more concerning. The Fibonacci levels run from the May 10 high of $1.50 to the recent low of $1.34. The 0.236 Fib sits at $1.46, the 0.382 at $1.44, and the 0.5 at $1.42. These happen to be the immediate floors. Currently, the XRP price is trying to stay above the $1.44 floor. Beneath that, $1.40 and $1.37 are the next levels of interest. The neckline of the bearish pattern sits at $1.34. A break of $1.34 confirms the double top and triggers the measured move. The pattern projects an 11.09% decline from the neckline to $1.19. At present the $1.51 reclaim separates a fresh leg toward $1.54 from an 11% drop to $1.19.

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來源：BeInCrypto

發佈：2026-05-11 13:00:00

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