Polymarket 最扯「詐賭」手法曝光：為賭贏，狠人竟拿「吹風機」竄改巴黎氣溫

📄完整原文· 由 trafilatura 自動擷取Gemini 翻譯1707 字

Author: Fenrir, Crypto City Can a hair dryer be used to cash out? Artificial interference suspected at Paris airport sensors The decentralized prediction market Polymarket has recently become the focus of public attention, as a dramatic incident of "artificial climate interference" has sparked concern. According to reports from Le Monde and on-chain data analysis, several speculators are suspected of using hair dryers to artificially heat meteorological sensors near Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport (CDG), causing local temperatures to spike briefly in order to manipulate the results of a Polymarket prediction market regarding "Paris daily maximum temperature." This incident resulted in traders netting over $35,000 in total profits, with one account investing only about $120 and earning over $21,000 in just 30 minutes, a return rate as high as 180 times. This arbitrage operation, dubbed the "Hair Dryer Chaos," occurred on April 6 and April 15, 2026. According to the French television station BFMTV, an automatic sensor from Météo France located near the runways at CDG recorded abnormal temperature fluctuations, with temperatures rising by more than 3 degrees Celsius within minutes before quickly returning to normal. Blockchain analysis platform Bubblemaps pointed out that a trader who had long participated in climate prediction markets suddenly placed a heavy bet of $120 that the day's maximum temperature would exceed 18°C just minutes before the abnormal data appeared on April 15. At the time, the odds of that result were less than 1%, but as the sensor was artificially influenced and data spiked, the trader secured a high payout. Météo France reports the vulnerability to police; single data source becomes a security concern Facing this type of physical manipulation, Météo France has officially filed a criminal complaint with the Roissy Air Transport Gendarmerie Brigade on the grounds of "interference with the operation of an automated data processing system." The weather bureau pointed out that the human intervention compromised data accuracy and could pose a potential threat to the aviation industry, which relies on real-time data for navigation and safety decisions. French police have now intervened to investigate and identify the manipulators who interfered with the sensors. This type of attack targeting physical equipment exposes the weaknesses in the settlement mechanisms of current prediction markets. Polymarket's Paris climate market relies entirely on a single official data source provided by Météo France for settlement, making it vulnerable to physical manipulation. Mark Roulston, a scholar at Lancaster University who studies prediction markets, pointed out that tying the outcome of high-value contracts solely to the readings of a single weather station is extremely risky. Weather stations may produce erroneous data due to equipment failure or environmental interference; he suggests that future prediction contracts should be based on the average of multiple sensor sites to reduce the risk of single-point failure and human manipulation. Vitalik suggests introducing multiple data sources to enhance market integrity Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin commented on the incident, noting that it is similar in nature to the "Myrnohrad incident" that occurred in November 2025. At that time, the prediction market saw extreme volatility in odds due to a think tank releasing incorrect military intelligence. Vitalik emphasized that if prediction markets are to maintain integrity and functionality, they should mandate a "two-out-of-three" or a median-of-3 independent sources settlement mechanism. He questioned why markets involving large sums of money should rely on a single, easily compromised information source. Vitalik also re-examined the social function of prediction markets. He believes that prediction markets are environments for seeking the truth. He suggests that platforms should launch more "Conditional Markets" to evaluate the correlation between specific decisions and outcomes. Vitalik has previously mentioned that economic incentives can promote information transparency, but only if the settlement system is sufficiently robust. Regulatory pressure and capital expansion coexist; integrity mechanisms are key to future development The timing of this manipulation incident comes as prediction markets face regulatory challenges globally. In the United States, there are proposals to ban sports-related predictions to maintain the integrity of competitions. Although Polymarket is restricted in France due to gambling license issues, it has received some policy support in the United States. However, this "hair dryer incident" serves as a reminder to participants and developers that ensuring the authenticity of underlying data is a core challenge for the industry as it moves toward the mainstream. Despite ongoing controversy, the capital scale of prediction markets continues to expand. Polymarket is seeking a new round of financing of $400 million, with a valuation of $15 billion. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) also recently invested $600 million in the platform, indicating the interest of traditional financial institutions in new types of data trading tools. The Paris incident has brought reflection to the market; how to perfect data verification mechanisms will be the key to the future development of prediction markets. (The above content is excerpted and reprinted with authorization

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發佈：2026-04-26 06:00:28

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