Altseason is here? Two major signals have emerged, but BTC dominance remains at 60%. What will happen next?

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Two independent technical indicators have broken through within 72 hours: the total market capitalization of altcoins has stood above the key resistance of $206 billion for the first time, and the altcoin dominance has broken through a two-year downward trendline—the bullish camp is cheering that "Altseason is here." However, macroeconomic data tells a different story: Bitcoin dominance remains stubbornly high at 60.66% as of May 2026, and the CMC Altcoin Season Index is stuck at 39/100, still deep in "Bitcoin Season" territory. The market is standing at the intersection of bullish and bearish narratives, with technicals and on-chain capital flows at odds, suggesting investors might need an extra dose of caution before popping the champagne. (Previous coverage: Why have altcoins like ONDO, ZEC, BIO, and TON surged recently?) (Background supplement: Bitcoin V-shaped surge to $82,400! Bears hit hard with $380 million in liquidations) Two independent technical indicators have broken through simultaneously over the past three days, reigniting confidence among long-dormant altcoin bulls. This is not random noise from a single signal, but rather a breakthrough signal sent simultaneously by two different dimensions of technical analysis in the short term—yet the reaction of macroeconomic capital data is vastly different, plunging the characterization of this market trend into genuine controversy. Crypto market analyst @AshCrypto posted on May 9 that the total market capitalization of altcoins and other tokens has broken through $206 billion for the first time, the highest point since January 29 and an important milestone from a bullish perspective. He emphasized: "If it can stabilize above the $200 billion resistance level on the weekly close, altcoins will usher in an explosive market." This $200 billion mark has repeatedly suppressed rebounds over the past few months, and this week's closing position will be the key arbiter for the future trend. Crypto trader @GordonGekko posted today (5/11) that altcoin dominance has officially broken through a two-year downward trendline, the first structural shift seen since the beginning of 2024. From a technical analysis perspective, the breakthrough of a trendline often represents the end of a cyclical phase—the long-term dominance of the bears has developed a rare crack on the chart. It is worth noting that before the two major altcoin explosions in 2017 and 2021, the market experienced the same "three-stage structure": first, horizontal accumulation, then a slow climb along the support line, followed by a fakeout dip, and finally an explosive market. Technical analysts believe that the breakthrough of the OTHERS index trendline in early 2026 is the most structurally significant technical development since the peak pullback in October 2025, and early stabilization signals are indeed emerging. However, the bullish technical narrative is facing a head-on collision with hard data. According to BeInCrypto, Bitcoin dominance remains at a high of 60.66% as of May 2026, with the headline stating bluntly: "Bitcoin Dominance Hits 60.66%, Killing Altseason Hopes." The Bitget Altcoin Season Index reading is similarly pessimistic: it is currently at 39/100, and according to CoinDCX data, this figure keeps the market "firmly in Bitcoin Season territory." Around May 9, the index consolidated between 35 and 45, which the industry calls the "transitional zone," meaning that capital has not yet spilled over from Bitcoin to altcoins on a large scale. A more critical threshold is that the official trigger for Altseason usually requires Bitcoin dominance to fall below 59.63% and stay there; historical experience shows that to see a broad, comprehensive recovery of altcoins, dominance may even need to be suppressed to the 52% to 54% range—a considerable distance from the current 60.66%. Taken together, the simultaneous breakthrough of two technical indicators is not market noise that can be easily ignored; it is a technical event that both bulls and bears need to take seriously. But the gap between "technical breakthrough" and "capital confirmation" is the core contradiction of the current market: the charts say buy, but the wallets say no. Market observers' consensus leans toward caution: Bitcoin still dominates capital flows, and unless the Altcoin Season Index pushes up to the 50 to 60 range, the strong performance of some altcoins should be interpreted as "selective rotation" rather than the opening of a full-blown Altseason. In other words, specific sectors (such as AI concept coins, RWA, L2) may see excess returns, but this is fundamentally different from the 2021

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