BTC hits resistance at $80,000! Derivatives flash risk-off signals, whales bet on BTC dropping toward $65,000

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Against the macro headwinds of crude oil surging past $110, rising US Treasury yields, and a deep divide within the Fed, Bitcoin is facing massive profit-taking pressure at the $80,000 level. Derivatives market data has flashed a "risk-off red light," with over $500 million in liquidations in a single day and accelerating capital outflows, while options whales are betting on a price drop toward $65,000. (Previous coverage: Bitcoin funding rates negative for two consecutive weeks, failed to break $77,800; compared to the whale long-short ratio which remains rock solid, are you scared?) (Background: Fed FOMC "Bitcoin flash crash to $74,900," 120,000 people liquidated for $550 million) BTC is facing a dual sniper attack from both macroeconomic and technical fronts as it attempts to break through $80,000. According to the latest market analysis, although Bitcoin has recently managed to stay above the flatline, any aggressive move to challenge $80,000 is highly likely to hit a wall built by "short-term profit-taking." Bitwise senior research associate Luke Deans pointed out that the cost basis for short-term holders sits right around $80,000; once the price breaks this level, it is highly likely to trigger these investors to sell for cash, thereby capping further gains. Oil prices soar to $110, Fed deeply divided, macro headwinds strike Beyond technical resistance, the deteriorating macroeconomic environment has left the bulls walking on thin ice. The release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data comes at a time when global energy markets are fragile due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has soared to a high of $110, with high oil prices and climbing US Treasury yields joining forces to suppress risk assets. Adding insult to injury is the stance of the Fed. Although the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, it saw a rare 4 dissenting votes (the most since 1992), highlighting a severe split among policymakers over whether to resume easing, further exacerbating market uncertainty. $500 million in derivatives liquidations! Whales bet on a drop to $65,000 The fermentation of macro headwinds has been directly reflected in the "risk-off sentiment" of the derivatives market: - Signs of capital flight: Open Interest (OI) in the futures market dropped by over 2% to $119 billion within 24 hours, while trading volume surged 26% to $208 billion. This combination usually implies that a large number of positions are being closed and capital is fleeing the market. - Bulls bloodied: Over $500 million in leveraged positions were liquidated across the network, the vast majority of which were long positions, showing that bulls were caught off guard by the weakness triggered by rising US Treasury yields. - Bearish options: According to Amberdata, a massive put spread strategy covering strike prices of $72,000 and $65,000 appeared in block trades. This indicates that whales are betting on Bitcoin falling back to $65,000 or lower. It is worth noting that Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) has fallen to 41%, hitting its lowest level since January 29. Analysts warn that the market seems to have become "desensitized" to macro bearish news, with low liquidity and a lack of directional conviction, which is often a precursor to the next wave of violent volatility. Meanwhile, the correlation between altcoins and Bitcoin is as high as 97%, meaning they are currently just "leveraged Bitcoin trades," and their declines could be even more severe.

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