Trump backs federal jurisdiction! White House reviews CFTC new rules on prediction markets

ORIGINAL川普力挺聯邦管轄權！白宮審查 CFTC 預測市場新規

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U.S. prediction market regulatory tensions are escalating once again. As Donald Trump publicly backs the federal government's absolute jurisdiction, the White House has now begun reviewing a new set of regulations proposed by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) targeting prediction markets, a move expected to reshape the operating model and legal status of platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi in the United States. According to records on RegInfo.gov, the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) formally received and initiated review of this proposed rule—labeled by the CFTC as "Prediction Markets"—on May 26, pursuant to Executive Order 12866. However, the document has yet to publicly disclose the full content of the rule. This step is widely viewed as the CFTC preparing to establish a more comprehensive federal regulatory framework for "event contracts." Over the past few months, prediction markets centered around sporting events and political elections have triggered fierce legal and political battles in the United States. Multiple state governments, including Illinois and New Jersey, have strongly argued that event contracts tied to sporting events are essentially no different from "online gambling" and should therefore be subject to each state's gambling regulations. However, the well-known prediction market platform Kalshi and the CFTC have pushed back firmly, emphasizing that these contracts qualify as "Designated Contract Markets (DCM)" governed by federal commodity laws and thus fall under the CFTC's jurisdiction. Under the current U.S. system, Executive Order 12866 specifically regulates the review mechanism for major federal regulations before they officially take effect, mandating that federal agencies first submit significant rules for comprehensive economic impact and policy assessment. The OIRA, which sits under the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB), is the principal agency responsible for overseeing this rigorous process. The timing of this review is also rather intriguing. Just days earlier, Trump had posted in support of the CFTC's absolute jurisdiction over prediction markets, describing the issue as "critically important" in his post and emphasizing that the CFTC must retain "exclusive jurisdiction" in this emerging field, and must not allow state governments to act on their own.

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