a16z backs CFTC to regulate "prediction markets"! Criticizes state bans for undermining fair access and reducing market liquidity

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In response to the recent crackdowns on prediction markets by various U.S. states, top venture capital firm a16z officially submitted an 18-page comment letter to the CFTC on Friday, advocating for unified federal regulation. a16z warned that state-level bans would create "significant barriers to fair access" and substantially reduce market liquidity. (Previous coverage: Hyperliquid submits comment letter to CFTC on prediction markets: Calling for a "decentralized" legal path, paving the way for the HIP-4 upgrade) (Background: U.S. Senate unanimously passes bill banning "all Senators" from betting on prediction markets, including staff) The explosive growth of Prediction Markets is triggering an intense jurisdictional battle between U.S. federal and state regulators. This time, top venture capital firm a16z (Andreessen Horowitz) has chosen to stand firmly on the side of federal regulators. On Friday (the 1st), a16z submitted an 18-page comment letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), expressing support for the CFTC's regulatory dominance and strongly opposing the recent wave of crackdowns on prediction markets by various state governments. Recently, regulators and attorneys general in multiple U.S. states have targeted prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, accusing them of offering "unlicensed gambling products" and issuing a series of cease-and-desist letters and proposed bans. In response, a16z fired back in its comment letter, pointing out that these state-level enforcement actions are creating a "significant barrier to fair access" for users. a16z emphasized that if trading platforms are forced to implement regional blocks based on the user's state of residence, it would severely conflict with the CFTC's principles regarding fair market access. a16z warned in the letter: "Being forced to deny fair access to users in states that seek to permit or prohibit certain event contracts would very likely severely limit the liquidity available in the market." In fact, to defend its jurisdiction, the CFTC has taken extremely rare legal action. In the past month alone, the CFTC has filed a series of lawsuits against Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, New York, and Wisconsin, alleging that these state governments are engaging in "overreach" by attempting to regulate markets overseen by the federal government. CFTC Chair Mike Selig has also clearly argued that event contracts on prediction markets legally meet the definition of "Swaps" and should therefore fall entirely under the "exclusive jurisdiction" of the CFTC. Beyond discussing legal jurisdiction, a16z also strongly defended the core value provided by prediction markets themselves. The firm noted that the pricing systems of prediction markets act as a "unique form of price discovery," effectively helping society reveal the probabilities of various uncertain events. Regarding decentralized prediction markets, a16z further emphasized the advantages brought by blockchain technology. They believe that blockchain-based prediction markets are far more transparent than traditional platforms because the "on-chain auditability" of transactions allows both market participants and regulators to monitor activity more easily in real-time. Market data also proves the massive demand for this innovation. After months of explosive growth in usage, the cumulative historical trading volume of the two major prediction market leaders, Polymarket and Kalshi, officially surpassed the $150 billion mark this April. With the backing of Wall Street giants like a16z, this regulatory battle over the legitimacy and future of prediction markets is bound to enter a more intense phase.

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Published:2026-05-02 01:08:22

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