Brazil bans 27 prediction markets! Kalshi and Polymarket blocked, officials classify them as gambling, not finance.

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The Brazilian Ministry of Finance and the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel) have joined forces to ban 27 prediction market platforms in one fell swoop, with international giants such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt all being targeted. CMN Resolution 5.298 explicitly classifies contracts related to sports, politics, and entertainment as gambling, signaling an accelerated restructuring of the prediction market regulatory landscape. (Previous coverage: Prediction market Kalshi sued by Nevada for "unlicensed gambling"! Trump administration takes a stand: Event contracts are not traditional gambling) (Background: First shot fired in prediction market ban! Massachusetts judge orders Kalshi to stop offering sports betting) The Brazilian government took decisive action on the 25th: The Ministry of Finance, in conjunction with Anatel, announced the ban of 27 prediction market platforms, including internationally renowned services such as Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood's prediction market, and Fanatics Markets. Execution is handled by Anatel, which is blocking domains, while financial institutions are coordinating to freeze related accounts. The National Monetary Council (CMN) officially issued Resolution 5.298 on April 24, which took effect in early May, providing the legal basis for this wave of bans. The core logic of CMN Resolution 5.298 is to split prediction market contracts into two categories. Contracts related to sports events, political elections, entertainment programs, and social events have been explicitly classified by authorities as gambling and are prohibited from being offered within Brazil effective immediately. Only contracts linked to economic indicators such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities are still considered financial products and may continue to operate under the regulatory framework. Dario Durigan, Executive Secretary of the Brazilian Ministry of Finance, highlighted the historical context of this crackdown at a press conference at the Palácio do Planalto: "We have been monitoring the evolution of this industry in Brazil, which experienced a period of lawlessness and lack of regulation from 2018 to 2022." He emphasized that this action is intended to fill a long-standing regulatory void rather than being an unannounced raid. At the same press conference, Durigan further pointed out that prediction markets could exacerbate household debt: "At a time when we are committed to reducing debt levels for households, small and medium-sized enterprises, and students, we must also prevent the emergence of new forms of harmful debt." This statement makes the Brazilian government's policy priorities clear—consumer protection takes precedence over platform interests. In addition to the aforementioned major players, the 27 banned platforms include ProphetX, Hedgehog Markets, Novig, Polyswipe, PRED Exchange, Stride, and several services primarily targeting local Brazilian users, such as Palpita, Cravei, Previsao, and MercadoPred, covering a comprehensive range of services. It is worth noting that the ban has not closed all doors. The Brazilian stock exchange B3 has launched officially approved economic indicator event contracts, covering the Ibovespa index, the Brazilian Real exchange rate, and even Bitcoin, providing a compliant path for players who wish to remain in the market. This indicates that Brazil is not entirely rejecting the concept of prediction markets, but rather attempting to frame them within the existing financial regulatory system. Brazil is not an isolated case. European countries such as France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Hungary, and Portugal have previously banned or restricted Polymarket from operating locally, citing almost identical reasons: operating unauthorized gambling-like services. In contrast, the United States' stance is more divided. At the federal level, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publicly supported Kalshi during the Trump administration, determining that event contracts do not constitute traditional gambling. However, state attitudes differ significantly: Nevada has filed a formal lawsuit against Kalshi, and a Massachusetts judge has directly ordered it to stop operating sports betting markets, leaving the tug-of-war between federal and state governments unresolved. Brazil's move has brought the controversy over "whether prediction markets are financial instruments or gambling" back to the forefront. As more countries take sides, the answer to this question will directly determine how far the global expansion of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket can go.

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