Targeting the crypto cash cow! Kalshi and Polymarket race to launch "perpetual contracts," entering the crypto derivatives market.

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As market competition intensifies, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are expanding their fronts, preparing to launch cryptocurrency derivatives trading services to engage in a "customer acquisition war" with industry giants like Coinbase and Robinhood. According to a report by tech media outlet The Information citing people familiar with the matter, Kalshi will first launch "perpetual contract" products, with underlying assets including mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC. "Perpetual contracts" are popular derivatives in the cryptocurrency market, allowing traders to bet on price movements without actually holding the assets. Crucially, they have "no fixed expiration date." Unlike traditional futures that must be forcibly settled at a specific point in time, perpetual contracts can be held indefinitely as long as investors maintain sufficient margin. To keep the contract price closely linked to the spot market price, both long and short sides maintain balance through periodic "funding rate" payments. This flexible, high-leverage mechanism has long been a cash cow and core product for many cryptocurrency exchanges. Kalshi's move is undoubtedly stepping directly into the territory of Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S. In recent years, Coinbase has been actively expanding its footprint in derivatives and prediction markets. However, due to strict regulatory constraints, it has not yet launched "true" perpetual contracts in the U.S., opting instead for "perpetual-like" futures contracts with very long expiration dates as an alternative. The company has already publicly stated that it intends to bring more advanced derivatives back to the U.S. market in the future. Other exchanges are also moving in this direction, highlighting a strong consensus within the U.S. industry: to win back the trading demand and capital that had previously flowed in large volumes to offshore platforms. As the U.S. regulatory environment begins to shift, products that were previously traded mainly offshore are seeing new opportunities. Kalshi already holds multiple licenses issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and was recently approved to provide margin trading services, paving the way for its entry into the derivatives market. People familiar with the matter revealed that Kalshi will initially focus on cryptocurrency-related perpetual contracts and may expand to other asset classes in the future. Coincidentally, just as news of Kalshi leaked, Polymarket also announced on the social media platform X on Tuesday that it plans to launch perpetual contract services on its own platform, though it did not disclose specific details. The battle between these two prediction market giants has officially spread to the derivatives sector. Behind these moves lies a clear industry trend: the boundaries between prediction markets and cryptocurrency trading platforms are rapidly dissolving, and both sides are fiercely competing for the same user base. Seeing trading volumes decline in recent months due to market downturns, cryptocurrency exchanges including Crypto.com, as well as Coinbase and Gemini—which was recently sued by New York State—have all crossed boundaries to launch their own prediction market products in search of new blue oceans. Meanwhile, trading activity in prediction markets has surged against the trend this year, not only successfully attracting massive user traffic but also drawing in significant institutional capital. This dissolution of industry boundaries is forcing platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to step out of their comfort zones and significantly expand their product lines to secure their footing in this cross-industry battle for customers.

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