Bitcoin reclaims $76,000! Analysis: If it holds steady, it is expected to challenge $85,000.

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As markets bet that the Middle East conflict could be resolved peacefully through diplomatic channels, capital has flowed back into risk assets, driving a synchronized rebound in global stock markets and the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin strongly reclaiming the $76,000 psychological level. Iranian officials confirmed earlier that they will send a delegation to Pakistan to initiate a second round of ceasefire negotiations. Stimulated by this positive news, Bitcoin has risen 1.8% over the past 24 hours and 2.7% over the past week, trading at $76,554 at the time of writing. The broader cryptocurrency market followed suit: ETH rose 1% to $2,331; XRP and BNB rose 1.3% and 2.0% respectively; and SOL also gained 1.2% to reach $86. Traditional financial markets have also regained optimism. The MSCI ACWI resumed its rally after a brief pause on Monday, edging up 0.1%. This rebound was led primarily by Asian stock markets, with the Asian technology stock index surging 2.4%. Cooling safe-haven demand caused Brent crude oil to fall 0.7% to $94.81 per barrel; gold slipped 0.6% to approximately $4,800; and silver also fell 1% to $78.90. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index remained largely flat. However, market alerts have not been fully lifted. The two-week temporary ceasefire agreement is set to expire on Wednesday evening Washington time (Thursday morning Taipei time). In response, U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that it is "highly unlikely" the ceasefire will be extended, meaning the market is using this as a critical pivot point for its bets. Bitcoin's rally lags behind U.S. stocks Observing the data, Bitcoin's rally in this cycle has significantly lagged behind the stock market. Global stock markets have risen for 11 consecutive days, barely affected by the shadow of the conflict, whereas Bitcoin has only struggled to recover from $74,000 to $76,000. Analysts point out that this "falling with the market but failing to rise with it" fatigue is partly due to structural factors within the cryptocurrency market. Bloomberg data shows that the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts has been negative for 46 consecutive days, marking the longest streak since the FTX collapse at the end of 2022, reflecting persistent bearish pressure on the market. On an optimistic note, capital inflows remain stable. According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $996 million last week, while ETH spot ETFs attracted $275 million. Research firm Kaiko noted that if Bitcoin continues to hold steady at $76,000, it will open an upward channel toward $85,000. Miner sell-off becomes a "roadblock" However, supply-side movements have buried concerns for the bulls. According to TheEnergyMag, publicly traded miners sold as many as 32,000 BTC in the first quarter, a volume that not only exceeds the total for the entire year of 2025 but is also higher than the 20,000 BTC panic-sold by miners during the collapse of the Terra (Luna) ecosystem in the second quarter of 2022. Although Bitcoin's total network hashrate has recovered from 978 EH/s at the beginning of the month to 992 EH/s, and mining difficulty has been adjusted downward by 2.43% to 135.59 T, miners are still selling Bitcoin at a record pace. This implies that even with the recovery in coin prices, miners' operating profit margins remain severely compressed. In the short term, the market is waiting for a clear direction: if the ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan yield positive results and Bitcoin stabilizes at $76,000, it is likely to trigger a short squeeze; if the negotiations break down, Bitcoin risks falling back below $74,000. Looking at the medium to long term, for Bitcoin to firmly establish itself above the $80,000 mark, the market must possess sufficient appetite to fully absorb the relentless selling pressure from miners.

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