CryptoQuant warns a bear market is coming: Bitcoin's holding structure is collapsing, whales are pulling back, and buyers are heavily reducing positions

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CryptoQuant's latest on-chain data shows that whale accounts holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoin have seen their annual growth turn negative, while the dolphin cohort—primarily composed of ETFs and corporate treasuries—has also significantly slowed. Together, these two groups represent the "structural buying support" of the Bitcoin market. (Background: Bitcoin breaks below the 90K mark, yet whales are quietly scooping up?) (Context: CryptoQuant: Bitcoin must hold the 87,000 USD "bull-bear bifurcation point," with 74,000 USD as the final defense against collapse) CryptoQuant released its latest report on Thursday, pointing out that the holding structures of Bitcoin whales and dolphins are simultaneously weakening, with annual growth data showing the most severe contraction since the 2022 bear market. According to the above analytics firm's data from CryptoQuant, whale accounts holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoin have seen their annual balance growth turn from positive to negative within this year, marking the fastest contraction pace of the year. Monthly growth has remained flat since February, indicating that Bitcoin is transitioning from an "accumulation phase" to a mild "distribution phase." On the other hand, the "dolphin" cohort holding 100 to 1,000 Bitcoin—primarily comprised of Bitcoin ETF fund managers and corporate treasury departments—still shows positive annual growth, but the pace has clearly cooled. Dolphin monthly balance growth has been making consecutive lower highs since September 2025 and is now approaching zero growth. CryptoQuant noted that historically, whenever both cohorts simultaneously enter a growth slowdown phase, "sustained price weakness" typically follows, as they jointly form the structural demand support for the Bitcoin market. Notably, the supply held by Bitcoin long-term holders (those holding for more than 6 months) has reached a new high of 15.8 million coins, but CryptoQuant emphasizes that this represents a state of holding without selling—a stock condition rather than new buying interest pouring in. In reality, this is a hollowing-out signal of "no new investors entering the market." HashKey Group researcher Tim Sun told CoinTelegraph that since Bitcoin pulled back from its peak in October, "the proportion of supply in unrealized losses once approached 50%, the highest level since the 2022 bear market bottom." Based on on-chain realized price calculations, the absolute bottom range could fall between 40,000 and 45,000 USD. However, Sun believes that under the assumption that the US-Iran situation does not escalate further and the Fed does not raise rates again, Bitcoin's "more realistic bottom range" should fall around 55,000 to 60,000 USD. Analyst Darkfost pointed out on the X platform on Thursday that the current range-bound market environment remains difficult for investors to navigate: "Whenever BTC approaches the upper end of the range, optimism emerges, but once the price gets close to the lower end, pessimism quickly returns." He added that at the current price of around 73,700 USD, approximately 40% of Bitcoin's supply was purchased at higher prices and remains in loss-holding positions. The signal conveyed by the weakening of Bitcoin's holding structure is not complex: whales are no longer aggressively accumulating, dolphin growth is cooling, and long-term supply is hitting new highs—but this means "old money isn't selling, and new money isn't buying." This combination clearly corresponded to price declines during the 2022 bear market. But unlike 2022, this round of Bitcoin's structural demand has shifted from "individual hoarding" to "passive ETF buying + corporate treasury allocation." CryptoQuant's definition of the dolphin cohort precisely covers this new force. If ETF capital inflows slow down, dolphin holdings will naturally decelerate—this is not just a matter of market sentiment, but a gear shift in the engine of structural buying. For Taiwanese investors, the current signal of approximately 7 major holding cohorts slowing simultaneously is worth noting. If you are accumulating Bitcoin through dollar-cost averaging, the current range-bound oscillation is precisely the moment that tests discipline. The "upper-end optimism, lower-end pessimism" psychological loop described by Darkfost is exactly the human weakness that DCA strategies need to overcome.

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