Largest outflow since January! Bitcoin spot ETFs bleed over $1.2 billion in a single week

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The outflow of funds from US spot Bitcoin ETFs continues to expand. According to SoSoValue data, as of last Friday, the 12 US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined weekly net outflow of approximately $1.26 billion, marking the worst weekly withdrawal record since late January of this year. This also marks a sluggish trend of net outflows for six consecutive trading days, with a cumulative outflow of $1.55 billion. The peak of the selling pressure occurred last Monday. On that day, after US President Donald Trump issued another stern threat against Iran, the price of Bitcoin briefly fell below the $77,000 mark, triggering market risk aversion. ETF funds saw a single-day outflow of as much as $648.6 million, the largest single-day withdrawal since January 29. In this regard, Andri Fauzan Adziima, Head of Research at Bitrue’s research arm, pointed out three main culprits: "The surge in US Treasury yields to a 12-month high, a strengthening US Dollar, and escalating geopolitical tensions are the keys to this wave of capital flight." Although market panic eased slightly after last Monday, there has been no significant return of funds. Data shows that these 12 funds continued to bleed in the following trading days: a net outflow of $331 million on Tuesday, $70.5 million on Wednesday, and $101 million and $105 million on Thursday and Friday, respectively. In contrast, while US spot Ethereum ETFs saw smaller outflows, the duration of the capital retreat has been longer. Last week, the 9 funds saw a combined loss of $216 million, marking 10 consecutive trading days of net outflows, the longest streak since March 2025. This brought the cumulative net inflow of spot Ethereum ETFs down to $11.62 billion, with current net assets at $11.84 billion, leaving a buffer of only about $223 million. In other words, as the price of Ethereum continues to weaken and funds continue to flow out, the total asset scale of some ETFs may fall below the total principal actually invested by investors. This pressure is particularly evident among some ETF issuers. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) remains the world's largest spot Bitcoin ETF. However, as of last Friday, IBIT's net asset value was approximately $61.1 billion, lower than its cumulative net inflow of $64.8 billion, meaning the current market value of the ETF is about $3.7 billion less than the total amount invested by investors. In comparison, Fidelity Investments' FBTC has performed relatively steadily, with its current net assets still about $3.2 billion higher than its cumulative net inflows, indicating relatively lower cost pressure for investors. Interestingly, this drastic capital outflow occurred during a "boring week" with minimal market volatility. From the opening on Monday to Friday, Bitcoin fluctuated narrowly around $77,550, and Ethereum held steady around $2,130, with the weekly price change for both being less than $1,000. However, just after the ETF market closed on Friday, Ethereum fell by about 3.3%, indicating that undercurrents in the market are still surging. In fact, the market structure had already quietly weakened. A report released by Bitfinex on May 14 pointed out that corporate buying has cooled significantly, with purchase volumes dropping by about 80% month-on-month, making ETFs almost the only remaining source of institutional capital currently operating in the market. Now, even ETF funds have begun to retreat, and the support in the spot market is rapidly fading. According to analysis by crypto financial institution Nexo, as of May 19, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD, a key indicator measuring the strength of active market buying and selling) of the Bitcoin spot order book has been negative for 9 consecutive trading days, marking the longest streak of net selling since 2026. Despite the heavy capital outflow last week, from a macro perspective, US spot Bitcoin ETFs still have a cumulative net inflow of $57.1 billion and total net assets of $98.9 billion, with IBIT alone holding 4% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin.

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