Single-day outflow of $635 million! Bitcoin spot ETF bleeds heavily — is the market starting to get nervous?

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The ETF capital wave that once pushed Bitcoin past the $80,000 mark is receding. Between March and April of this year, the 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted a total of $32.9 billion, but they are now facing not only capital outflows but also significant losses. According to SoSoValue data, the 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a total outflow of $635 million on Wednesday, marking the largest single-day net outflow since January 29 of this year. This continues a recent downward trend, with these ETFs losing a cumulative $1.26 billion over the past five trading days. As a result, the cumulative net inflow for spot Bitcoin ETFs since their launch in January 2024 has slipped from $59.76 billion a week ago to $58.5 billion. As capital retreats, Bitcoin's rally has come to an abrupt halt. Looking back at last week, Bitcoin climbed strongly from $65,000 to over $80,000, but faced clear resistance after touching the "200-day SMA" near $82,000. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has fallen by approximately 1.5% to $79,736. Analysts believe that while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit record highs on Wednesday, showing that Wall Street reacted calmly to inflation data, the cryptocurrency market is clearly more sensitive to rising inflation. Between March and April of this year, Bitcoin ETFs attracted as much as $3.29 billion in inflows, which was widely seen as a key driver for Bitcoin's return to a bull market. Now, facing massive withdrawals in a short period, it is difficult for the bullish camp to downplay the situation. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, stated: "If the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains high, the market perceives incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as more hawkish, or if there is another oil price shock, Bitcoin's growth potential could be compressed even if ETFs maintain net inflows." For us, the point is not whether the rally continues, but whether the macroeconomic environment remains loose enough for these ETF funds to be effective. It is worth noting that the relationship between ETF capital flows and Bitcoin prices is no longer as direct as it once was. According to Pearson coefficient research, the 90-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin's daily returns and changes in cumulative net ETF inflows has plummeted from a high of 0.68 in February to the current 0.16. Statistically, 0.16 is close to zero, meaning the current correlation between the two is extremely low. In other words, it is now difficult to predict price trends by looking solely at whether ETF funds are flowing in or out. Nevertheless, a massive redemption of this scale on Wednesday still deals a heavy blow to market confidence and reveals the decisiveness of institutional capital when taking profits.

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