The fuel behind Bitcoin's surge to $78,000! Analysts: A short squeeze that liquidated $350 million in 1 hour

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BTC surged from around $74,000 to $78,000 on the evening of the 17th, marking a 24-hour gain of over 5% and liquidating $357 million in short positions within a single hour. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that this rally exhibits all the hallmarks of a short squeeze, with momentum driven by forced liquidations rather than fresh spot demand; investors should distinguish between the two. (Previous coverage: Bitcoin soared above $77k overnight! Nasdaq rises for 13 consecutive days, breaking 1992 record) (Background: Analyst: BTC funding rates fell to -0.005%, the most negative since 2023, shorts may fuel a major rally) BTC experienced a sharp rally after 9 PM on the 17th, starting from $74,000, breaking through $77,000, and reaching a high above $78,000, with a 24-hour gain of over 5%. Data shows that the price triggered dense short liquidations when crossing the key $77,000 level. According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., the market absorbed a peak of $357 million in short liquidations in just the hour of 21:00, representing the most significant single-hour data point in this move. Axel Adler Jr.'s core argument is that this rebound bears all the classic characteristics of a short squeeze, but whether this is followed by genuine spot demand is a separate issue. A short squeeze can drive prices up very rapidly, but by itself, it does not confirm sustainable spot demand. $77,000 acted as a "magnet" in this market move. "Fully Unlocked" and Burning Fuel However, what made this rally so rapid was the massive accumulation of short positions above $77,000. Approximately $1.17 billion in short positions were stacked above 77k, with liquidity walls densely distributed within a range of a few hundred dollars. Last night witnessed a "reflexive squeeze": the more densely shorts are accumulated at a certain price level, the stronger the forced buy-backs become once the price breaks through, which in turn pushes the price higher and triggers liquidations at even higher levels. $77,000 became the liquidation trigger point for this move, represented by the $357 million 1-hour liquidation peak. Can Spot Demand Take Over? Whether spot buying follows suit will determine if BTC can sustain levels above $78,000. Three data points are worth tracking: First, the net spot inflow status. If exchange net spot inflows remain negative (outflows exceed inflows), it indicates that buying pressure has not picked up and the move is merely a result of derivatives. Second is the direction and sustainability of funding rates. Since BTC funding rates previously dropped to -0.005%, the most negative level since 2023, this environment provided fuel for the short squeeze. If rates turn positive and continue to climb rapidly after this surge, watch for the risk of a pullback due to long-side overheating. Finally, the trend of Open Interest (OI). If OI rises in tandem with price, it indicates that new long positions are being established and the trend has continuity. Conversely, if OI continues to shrink while the price rises, it suggests that a sustained rebound trend has not formed. Experienced traders know this is not investment advice. Good luck, and don't get played by TACO.

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Published:2026-04-18 08:30:35

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