Don't fear quantum computers breaking Bitcoin! Analysts: If $145 billion in BTC were hacked, the market could fully absorb it

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Will quantum computing destroy Bitcoin? Market data tells you: Don't panic! With the evolution of quantum computing technology, concerns about cracking early Bitcoin (Satoshi-era) wallets have resurfaced. It is estimated that approximately 1.7 million BTC, worth as much as $145 billion, are at risk of theft. However, analysts point out that compared to the massive liquidity of today's Bitcoin market, the market is absolutely capable of absorbing this potential selling pressure within a few months, and it does not constitute an "existential threat." The real challenge actually lies in community governance. (Previous coverage: Cardano founder slams Bitcoin quantum defense as "fake soft fork": BIP-361 freezing Satoshi's million BTC is a hard fork) (Background: As the quantum era approaches, should we freeze Satoshi's 1.7 million BTC or stick to the belief in decentralization?) The breakthrough in quantum computing technology has once again awakened a long-standing fear in the crypto market: If quantum computers become powerful enough to crack Bitcoin's cryptography, will the market crash? According to Bitcoin analyst James Check, theoretically, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could indeed crack Bitcoin's elliptic curve signatures. This would put addresses that have exposed their public keys, especially early "Satoshi-era" wallets, at extreme risk. "Doomers" warn that this would unleash a massive supply of Bitcoin, completely destroying the market. However, when we look at the actual market data, the situation does not seem as pessimistic as imagined. The threat of quantum computing is real. According to statistics, approximately 1.7 million BTC are stored in these potentially vulnerable early addresses. At current prices, this represents a potential selling pressure of up to $145 billion. This number sounds devastating, but given today's market depth, it is actually manageable. Here are some key liquidity data comparisons: - Regular bull market sell-offs: In a bull market, long-term holders (investors holding for more than 155 days) typically release 10,000 to 30,000 BTC into the market daily. At this rate, this 1.7 million "ancient" supply is roughly equivalent to 2 to 3 months of regular "profit-taking." - Bear market turnover: In the most recent bear market, more than 2.3 million BTC changed hands in a single quarter. This far exceeds the potential "total target" of a quantum attack, and the market did not experience a systemic collapse at that time. - Exchange and derivatives liquidity: Currently, monthly inflows to exchanges are close to 850,000 BTC; and in the derivatives market, a notional trading volume equivalent to the entire Satoshi-era treasure is generated every few days. In short, while $145 billion looks massive when viewed in isolation, it becomes relatively ordinary market volatility when placed within Bitcoin's existing liquidity and turnover. The market would absorb this scale of supply in terms of "months," not "years." Of course, a concentrated release of a large number of tokens in a short period would still have an impact. James Check admits that this could exacerbate volatility and potentially trigger a prolonged downturn. But the assumption of a "devastating dump" is based on extremely irrational economic behavior. Any entity capable of acquiring this massive treasure (whether it is a state-level hacker organization or a top-tier institution) has the ultimate goal of making a profit. To maximize profits and reduce slippage, they have every incentive to choose to "sell in batches" or even hedge through the derivatives market, rather than dumping everything at once and causing their assets to shrink significantly. Therefore, the core issue of the quantum threat is not mechanical selling pressure, but "community governance." The report concludes that more controversial than a market crash is whether the Bitcoin community should take action. For example, should proposals like BIP-361 be implemented to forcibly "freeze" these ancient Satoshi-era coins to prevent quantum theft? Or should the Bitcoin community stick to the iron rule of "censorship-resistant" decentralization and let market mechanisms operate naturally? This is the ultimate test that Bitcoin believers must face when the quantum era arrives.

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