Bitcoin "Bull-Bear Indicator" turns green for the first time in 3 years! Analysts: Market structure welcomes recovery

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After enduring a long period of volatile shakeouts, is the "bullish engine" of the cryptocurrency market finally about to restart? On Wednesday, the "Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator" from on-chain data analytics firm CryptoQuant turned green, entering the "Bull Market Phase" range for the first time since March 2023. Analyst Julio Moreno stated that this could mean "the market structure has begun to enter a recovery phase." Julio Moreno further explained: "Historically, this is a key signal of a major shift in market landscape. When the indicator officially exits the bear market and steps into the early bull market range, it often suggests that the most brutal retracement period has been weathered, and the market structure is reshaping and strengthening." For Mati Greenspan, former senior market analyst at eToro and current founder of Quantum Economics, this indicator is more of a "trend transition detector" than a "crystal ball" that can predict the future. He emphasized: Looking back, the greatest value of this indicator lies in its ability to accurately identify when Bitcoin "no longer behaves like a bear market asset." Mati Greenspan added that the real test is yet to come; Bitcoin must continue to see strong buying demand, maintain ample liquidity, and secure support at higher price levels to confirm the arrival of a bull market. Therefore, the entire market is now closely watching price action to confirm whether this signal is valid. Mati Greenspan recalled that this indicator turned green in 2019 and again after the most pessimistic period of the bear market in early 2023, after which the market indeed entered a "stronger bullish trend." However, Julio Moreno still reminds investors to remain vigilant, as there was an "exception" in March 2022. At that time, although the indicator turned bullish, it ultimately became a "false signal," and the market subsequently entered an even deeper downtrend. This makes the current turning point even more subtle. Julio Moreno pointed out that, on one hand, the indicator is showing "the first structural positive shift in years"; Bitcoin no longer acts like a bear market asset, and the improvement in the 30-day moving average suggests that underlying momentum is picking up. On the other hand, Bitcoin is currently in a fierce tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with the situation quite similar to 2022. Although on-chain indicators are recovering, the $82,000 resistance level remains stubborn; even though Bitcoin has rebounded 35% from its February low of $60,000, this pressure level remains unbreakable. Julio Moreno stated that to confirm the validity of the bull market signal, Bitcoin must overcome the "Exhaustion" phenomenon currently appearing in secondary indicators. The current "Fear & Greed Index" for cryptocurrencies remains in the neutral range, and the complex macroeconomic environment is also making this rally more faltering. In this regard, Arthur Hayes, CIO of family office Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, holds a more firmly optimistic attitude. He believes that Bitcoin successfully bottomed out at $60,000 earlier this year and points out that $90,000 will be the key point for a market "explosion." Once it stabilizes at that price, Bitcoin is expected to challenge its all-time high of $126,000. Regarding these diverse indicators and data, Jason Fernandes, co-founder of Web3 investment platform AdLunam, provided a sharp summary. He believes that while these indicators are useful, they are often misunderstood by the public; popular on-chain indicators such as MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) and NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) were not inherently designed to provide precise trading signals. He reminded investors: "These indicators are better viewed as a 'market behavior framework' that helps us understand which stage of the overall liquidity cycle Bitcoin is currently in."

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