BTC holds at $80,000! An "iron bottom" seems to have emerged, so why are traders still afraid to chase the highs?

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After the volatility and shakeout last Friday, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $80,000 mark. However, behind this seemingly strong rebound, market observers are filled with caution: is this a powerful breakout by the bulls, or a "head fake" testing the selling pressure above? Market observers point out that compared to simple price fluctuations, the current market structure of Bitcoin is actually undercurrents. Undeniably, spot buying is indeed warming up, and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs continue to provide support. However, a large part of the driving force behind the recent active market comes from highly leveraged futures traders, rather than pure spot demand. This makes Bitcoin's rally more vulnerable to macroeconomic headwinds, especially with inflation data due to be released soon. **Active buying, but an "unhealthy" structure** Singapore-based market maker Enflux points out that the strong demand for ETFs and the continuously bottoming Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are building a more solid "structural bottom" for Bitcoin. On-chain analysis firm Glassnode also stated that both the spot market and the perpetual futures market have seen more aggressive buying. The problem is that this bullish report card is not particularly impressive. The market's upward momentum is showing signs of fatigue, yet leverage ratios continue to climb, and funding rates indicate that hedging demand from the short side still exists. In other words, traders are still hedging during the rebound rather than fully embracing this rally. Bitcoin has risen 13.4% over the past 30 days and is currently hovering around $81,000. Last Friday's better-than-expected non-farm payroll report should have been a sign of a strong economy, but under the shadow of a potential delay in rate cuts by the Fed, it became a shackle for the market. Bitcoin fell from $82,000 to break below the $80,000 mark that day, hitting $79,743 before stopping its decline and rebounding. Enflux analyzed: "If this were a clean bullish breakout, Bitcoin should have easily crossed $80,700, but the spot market pulled back first. This shows that the $80,000 level is not just a line on a chart, but a real and heavy selling pressure." If market risk appetite is truly warming up, why has Bitcoin been slow to show a more convincing breakout? In this regard, Enflux proposed a rare but insightful comparative indicator: the gradually recovering high-end luxury watch market may decode the true movements of high-net-worth clients for us. According to the latest secondary market watch data from Morgan Stanley, watch prices rose slightly by 1.9% in the first quarter. Among the 35 brands tracked, as many as 25 showed gains, indicating improvements in both value retention and inventory turnover. The signal behind this data does not mean that hot money in the crypto circle has flowed into luxury watches, but rather that after a long price correction, high-net-worth buyers are re-embracing risk assets with clear pricing, scarcity, and easily assessable demand. For Bitcoin, this is undoubtedly an embarrassing comparison: if the risk appetite in the high-end market is thawing, but Bitcoin is still stumbling before the key resistance zone, it means that in the process of capital returning, cryptocurrency has not yet become the preferred target for the wealthy to demonstrate investment confidence. **Who is leading the market?** Glassnode's trading data shows that buyers are indeed more active, but not to the extent of completely eliminating market doubts. One key indicator is the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD). Simply put, CVD is mainly used to observe whether "active buying" or "active selling" dominates the market, and it can also reflect which side is leading the market direction. Glassnode pointed out that the spot market CVD rose from $42.4 million to $62 million, an increase of 46.4%, showing that buyers are increasingly willing to chase prices directly rather than waiting for prices to fall to pick up bargains. As for the perpetual contract CVD, it surged from $110 million to $410.3 million, meaning that leveraged traders have also turned bullish. However, leveraged capital can accelerate a rally, but its endurance is far inferior to spot buying. Once the market sentiment changes, futures positions can reverse very quickly. In summary, market observers generally believe that compared to a month ago, Bitcoin's current "bottom" is indeed more solid. However, whether it can trigger the next big market move may no longer depend on the enthusiasm of the crypto community, but on whether the upcoming inflation data can give traders enough confidence to abandon hedging operations and truly enter the market to chase this cryptocurrency frenzy.

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