Bitcoin sell-off surges, ETF hemorrhages! Traders ramp up bets on "drop below $70,000 before end of May"

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Bitcoin's downtrend continues to widen, with market pessimism rapidly heating up. As ETF capital withdraws and leveraged long liquidations intensify, more and more traders are placing bets that Bitcoin may break below the $70,000 round-number mark before the end of May. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin dropped to a low of $72,669 in the past 24 hours, setting a nearly 6-week low. The market's risk-off sentiment is also quickly being reflected in prediction markets. Data from prediction platform Myriad shows that the probability of bets on "Bitcoin breaking below $70,000 before the end of May" surged by more than 240% within just 24 hours. Although the current probability still sits at around 27%, capital is clearly starting to tilt toward the bearish side. Traders on Polymarket also estimate the probability of Bitcoin breaking below $70,000 before the end of May at approximately 26%. ETF Capital Withdrawal and Long Liquidations Strike Simultaneously Investigating the driving forces behind this decline, the main causes are chain liquidations of leveraged long positions and a major retreat of capital from Bitcoin spot ETFs. Data shows that the cryptocurrency derivatives market saw liquidation amounts approaching $924 million yesterday (the 28th), of which up to $851 million came from long positions, indicating that the bullish camp has suffered heavy losses. An Arctic Digital analyst noted: "Part of this decline stems from continued bleeding from ETFs, and the outflow scale is quite staggering." According to Farside Investors statistics, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen over $1 billion in outflows in just the past 2 trading days, with about $733 million flowing out on Wednesday alone. Currently, Bitcoin ETFs have shown net outflows for 8 consecutive trading days, with cumulative withdrawals exceeding $2.6 billion. Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Even More Bearish? Is "$50,000" the Ultimate Bottom? Despite the bearish market sentiment, investors' expectations of a "cliff-like crash" in the short term have not inflated accordingly. Taking Myriad platform data as an example, the probability of bets on Bitcoin plunging below $65,000 before the end of May currently stands at only 3%. However, when extending the timeframe, the market's attitude becomes notably more conservative. On Polymarket, traders place the probability of Bitcoin breaking below $55,000 in 2026 as high as 54%, while the probability of breaking below $50,000 also reaches 42%. Looking back to earlier this year, cryptocurrency quantitative analytics firm CryptoQuant had predicted that $55,000 would be the "ultimate bottom of the bear market." Analysts at Standard Chartered believe Bitcoin may first dip to $50,000 before gathering momentum to rebound toward the $100,000 mark.

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