Bitcoin rally extends, yet BTC options price only 25% chance of $84K in May

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Bitcoin rally extends, yet BTC options price only 25% chance of $84K in May Institutional investors and corporate-level Bitcoin accumulation remain the primary drivers of BTC’s price gains, despite the lack of bullish leverage. Key takeaways: - Bitcoin options markets price in low odds of BTC reaching $84,000 in May, while the monthly futures basis rate reflects weakness. - Significant Bitcoin accumulation by listed companies and rising spot Bitcoin ETF inflows absorb mining supply, reducing the impact of potential selling. Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $78,000 level amid broader risk-on sentiment, as the S&P 500 Index jumped to an all-time high on Friday. Despite 15% gains over the past 30 days, options markets are pricing in 25% odds that Bitcoin will trade above $84,000 by the end of May. Derivatives markets remain skeptical of further gains, although institutional spot demand remains solid. Bitcoin monthly options at Deribit. Source: Deribit Bitcoin call (buy) options with a May 29 expiry and an $84,000 strike price traded at 0.0136 BTC, or $1,063. Considering there are 27 days left until expiry, the implied probability for Bitcoin price gaining 8% in May stood at 25%. Bitcoin put (sell) options have consistently traded at a premium over the past month, indicating heightened demand for downside price protection. Bitcoin options 30-day delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas The delta skew measures the gap between put and call options, which usually ranges between -6% to +6% in balanced markets. When professional traders are unwilling to take downside price exposure, the indicator jumps above the 6% neutral threshold, a level that has been the norm for the past month. A similar trend has also been prevalent in BTC futures markets. Bitcoin 2-month futures basis rate. Source: Laevitas The Bitcoin monthly futures basis rate usually trades at a 4% to 8% premium relative to regular spot markets to account for the cost of capital. However, this metric has displayed weakness over the past 30 days. The lack of demand for bullish leveraged positions can be partially explained by Bitcoin’s 12% decline year-to-date in 2026. Bitcoin accumulation by spot ETFs and listed companies While derivatives traders show little confidence that Bitcoin will reach $84,000, US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tell a different story. These instruments accumulated $1.3 billion in net inflows during March and another $2 billion in April, driving total net assets above $100 billion. This metric is commonly used as a proxy for institutional investor demand. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs monthly net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValue Similarly, listed companies have added massive Bitcoin positions to their reserves over the last 30 days. These include 56,235 BTC from Strategy (MSTR US), 5,075 BTC from Metaplanet (3350 JP), and 929 BTC from Strive (ASST US). By acquiring more than the equivalent of five months of future Bitcoin mining supply, these companies greatly reduce potential sell pressure. The lack of demand for bullish Bitcoin derivative exposure does not invalidate the odds that the BTC price will reach $84,000 or higher by the end of May. As long as institutional appetite remains solid, the bullish momentum should continue.

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