Three Bitcoin charts say BTC price may rally toward $82K

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BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView Key takeaways: Since early April, Bitcoin has been trading within a well-defined ascending channel, with price consistently respecting both rising support and resistance trend lines. Each test of the lower boundary has triggered 8%–10% rebounds, often driving BTC back toward, or even beyond, the upper trend line. The current setup mirrors those prior cycles. BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: TradingView BTC is now consolidating near the channel’s lower support zone around $76,800–$77,500, which also coincides with the 20-period (green) and 50-period EMAs (red) on the 4-hour chart, a key dynamic support level in ongoing uptrends. A rebound from this range increase the odds of BTC’s price hitting the upper boundary near $82,700, up by roughly 7.70% from current prices. This level coincides with the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Related: Bitcoin shorts create $1.4B liquidation risk: Is a price squeeze to $80K next? Conversely, a breakdown risks BTC price dropping toward $73,600, a level aligning with the 0.786 Fib line and the 200-4H EMA (blue). Liquidity conditions are also rising, which improves the technical setup. Binance has recorded nearly $6 billion in stablecoin inflows across March and April, including $3.5 billion in April alone, marking a sharp reversal from the previous $7.6 billion in net outflows, data from CryptoQuant shows. Binance monthly stablecoin netflow. Source: CryptoQuant This is important for the bulls because stablecoin inflows represent deployable capital. In other words, liquidity is returning to exchanges, suggesting traders are preparing to re-enter risk despite US–Iran tensions and elevated oil prices. Bitcoin’s latest rebound has pushed its price back above the MVRV -0.5 standard deviation band (green) at around $72,750. This band has often acted as support and resistance across previous market cycles. The MVRV bands measure how far Bitcoin’s spot price has moved from investors’ aggregate on-chain cost basis. BTC MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands vs. price. Source: Glassnode When BTC climbs back above a lower deviation band, the market is no longer trading at a deep discount to its realized value, often opening room for a move toward the next band. A similar reclaim of the green band as support in past downturns, including the 2014 and 2018 bear markets, preceded short-term rallies toward the mean band (yellow), as shown below. BTC MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands vs. price. Source: Glassnode That puts Bitcoin’s next potential upside target near $94,500 if history repeats. The signal does not confirm a new bull market, but it does strengthen the case for a bear-market relief rally. On-chain analyst Willy Woo said Bitcoin is still forming a bottom, with the $65,000 level acting as a key floor. A decisive break above the $79,000 cost basis of recent investors is needed to strengthen the recovery, said Woo, with the next six weeks likely to determine whether the move can evolve into a sustained trend reversal. The next test for BTC is cleanly breaking the cost basis of recent investors (79k). I give it 30% odds on doing this on this attempt.

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