Polymarket and Kalshi race to launch crypto perpetual contracts, prediction markets storm Coinbase's $2.9 billion moat

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With a valuation of $22 billion, Kalshi, alongside the $15 billion Polymarket, announced on the same day their entry into the crypto perpetual futures market. This "one-two punch" from the two giants aims directly at the $2.9 billion derivatives moat that Coinbase has spent years building, signaling that the boundary between prediction markets and crypto derivatives has officially dissolved. (Previous coverage: Valuation soars to $22 billion! Kalshi secures $1 billion in funding led by Coatue, undeterred by regulatory headwinds across states) (Background: Prediction market Kalshi accused of "unlicensed gambling" and formally sued by Nevada; Trump administration takes a stand: Event contracts are not traditional gambling) The ambition of prediction markets is no longer limited to elections and sports—it is charging head-on into Coinbase's derivatives kingdom. On April 21, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket announced on the same day that they would launch crypto perpetual futures. This "dual-giant strike" on the same day is interpreted by the market as a direct assault on the $2.9 billion crypto derivatives moat held by Coinbase. According to a report by tech media The Information on Tuesday citing sources, Kalshi plans to launch perpetual futures products for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin within the "coming weeks," starting initially with major tokens such as BTC. This marks a significant transformation in Kalshi's core business—moving from binary "Yes or No" event betting to continuous financial markets with no expiration dates, infinite exposure, and leverage. Perpetual futures were first popularized by BitMEX. Their key feature is the absence of an expiration date, with a funding rate mechanism that keeps long and short positions in constant competition, fueling the explosive growth of crypto derivatives. Now, leveraging its CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) regulatory license and recent approval for margin trading, Kalshi is poised to become a compliant domestic alternative to offshore crypto derivatives platforms in the U.S. Almost simultaneously, Polymarket also announced it would launch perpetual trading features for the U.S. market. The two companies playing their cards on the same day has led observers to call it a meticulously designed "one-two punch" offensive. In terms of valuation, the intensity of the competition is equally staggering: after completing a $1 billion funding round led by Coatue Management this March, Kalshi’s valuation soared to $22 billion, doubling from its previous $11 billion round. Polymarket is reportedly seeking to raise $400 million in new capital with a target valuation of $15 billion, also a significant jump from its previous $9 billion valuation. The pace of valuation expansion for both companies is almost perfectly synchronized with their aggressive push into the crypto derivatives market. Polymarket recently reached an exclusive partnership with Major League Baseball (MLB) to continue expanding its event contract footprint. This pivot to perpetual futures shows that both platforms realize the ceiling for event contracts is within reach, and derivatives represent the next, larger prize. The timing is not coincidental. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has recently stated publicly that such crypto perpetual products "could emerge in the U.S. in the near future," as regulators clearly hope to bring more offshore trading volume back into the regulated U.S. environment. For Kalshi and Polymarket, this is a rare policy window. Traditional centralized exchanges like Coinbase have launched 24/7 perpetual stock futures for non-U.S. markets in recent years; Kraken has also introduced tokenized stock perpetual contracts for offshore users, covering U.S. stock indices, precious metals, and individual stocks; even S&P Dow Jones has licensed the listing of S&P 500 perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid. The derivatives battlefield is becoming increasingly crowded, but Kalshi holds the trump card of a CFTC license, giving it a first-mover advantage in the compliance narrative. However, on the same day the two giants announced their expansion ambitions, a heavy blow was dealt from another direction. On April 21, 2026, New York Attorney General Letitia James formally sued Coinbase and Gemini in Manhattan State Court, alleging that their prediction market businesses constitute unlicensed illegal gambling in violation of New York state law, and seeking $2.2 billion in damages from Coinbase. The lawsuit alleges that sports, entertainment, and election event contracts are effectively gambling, and that both platforms allowed users aged 18 to 21 to participate—below the 21-year-old legal age threshold for gambling in New York. Kalshi was not named in this instance, but its own regulatory risks remain significant. Last autumn, Kalshi took the lead in launching a legal counterattack against the New York State Gaming Commission, a case currently pending in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. Meanwhile, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Arizona have also sued Kalshi, with Arizona filing

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