Analysts: BTC to enter a new cycle surpassing stocks, bonds, and gold, ending the longest 142-day bottoming period in history

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Former Credit Suisse Global Portfolio Head Mark Connors pointed out that BTC has just ended its longest 142-day streak of underperforming the S&P 500 in history. With inflation remaining stubborn, oil prices high, and interest rates staying "higher for longer," he expects BTC to re-enter a cycle of outperforming stocks, bonds, and gold. (Previous coverage: Analysis of the logic behind the start, execution, and end of this BTC bull market: Has the four-year cycle law been broken?) (Background: Metaplanet launches Asia's largest Bitcoin equity financing: Aiming to buy $5.4 billion worth of BTC to hold 1% of supply) In an interview, Mark Connors, CIO of Risk Dimensions and former Global Portfolio Head at Credit Suisse, stated: "The 142-day period of relative weakness for BTC against the S&P 500 is a record never seen since its inception. I believe Bitcoin's relative underperformance against the market has ended, and it is transitioning from a consolidation phase to a phase of outperformance." Connors' core argument revolves around the reality that the positioning of traditional "defensive assets" is loosening. With US CPI at 3.8% and PPI at 6% in April, rate cut expectations continue to cool, and the Fed's "higher for longer" interest rate path is gradually becoming the market's base case. In this environment, bonds are under double pressure: coupon rates cannot keep up with inflation, and capital gains potential is constrained by rate hike expectations. Connors bluntly stated: "As the market adapts to a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, the function of bonds as a defensive asset is coming under increasing pressure." The structural high in oil prices is another key theme. Connors believes that geopolitical tensions and persistently high energy prices are both drivers of inflation and forces compelling capital to seek tools that can hedge against inflation. Connors specifically pointed to a historical analogy. In the early stages of the pandemic in 2020, gold surged first, but BTC subsequently launched a strong rebound and eventually overtook it. He believes the market structure in 2026 is highly similar. "Gold has already run its course," Connors said, "Bitcoin is now beginning its recovery." Connors' thesis does not stop at the macroeconomic level. He further pointed out that the integration of AI and blockchain technology is becoming a key bargaining chip for companies to combat inflationary pressure. "The only way to break through inflationary pressure is through technology," he said. As companies seek decentralized systems to support machine-driven transactions and automated processes, the connection between AI and blockchain will deepen. This perspective extends the narrative of Bitcoin from mere "digital gold" to the realm of "productivity infrastructure": in an environment of high inflation and high interest rates, assets that can resonate with technological upgrade cycles theoretically possess stronger resilience. Connors does not shy away from the short-term volatility of Bitcoin's price path. His description is quite straightforward: "Bitcoin, as always, is the first to get hit, but it is also always the first to break out." He expects that as the market grinds forward in an environment of "persistent bad news and stubbornly high oil prices," Bitcoin's outperformance relative to stocks and fixed income will continue. Currently, BTC is trading at approximately $76,800. Whether the 142-day relative weakness has truly ended remains to be verified by subsequent data.

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