Only 28 days left for the CLARITY Act! If it doesn't pass by the end of May, there's no hope for this year; Polymarket betting odds for passage have dropped to 38%.

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The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R.3633) is facing its most critical legislative window: with less than four weeks remaining until the May 25 Memorial Day "deadline," the Senate Banking Committee markup hearing has yet to be scheduled. Polymarket betting odds have been slashed from a peak of 70% to 38-50%, and industry insiders admit: if this window is missed, it is likely game over for this year. This is the window the crypto industry has been waiting nearly a decade for—the closest it has ever come to a formal legislative framework—now compressed into a life-or-death deadline of less than a month. From April 27 to the May 25 Memorial Day, if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R.3633) cannot complete the critical Senate procedures within this timeframe, the entire legislative schedule is almost certain to drag into a summer deadlock. By then, lawmakers will return to their districts for campaigns, congressional agendas will be frozen, and the probability of passage this year will shrink significantly. H.R.3633 passed the House on July 17 last year with a 294 to 134 vote—a bipartisan support level that set a record for recent crypto legislation. However, after the bill entered the Senate, there has been almost no public progress throughout April, with no major hearings or policy events scheduled. The core of the problem is stuck at the first hurdle: the Senate Banking Committee markup hearing. This is the minimum necessary condition for the bill to move forward, but no one can clearly say how far the committee is from initiating the markup. From House passage to final enactment, CLARITY still needs to clear at least five hurdles: 1. Senate Banking Committee markup (not yet conducted) 2. Senate floor vote (requiring 60 votes to overcome the filibuster threshold) 3. Integration with the Senate Agriculture Committee version (the Agriculture Committee version passed the committee in January 2026) 4. Final integration with the version passed by the House in July 2025 5. Signing into law by President Trump Five hurdles, four weeks, and the first one hasn't even started. Republican Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio spoke out on April 22 with direct language: CLARITY must pass Congress by the end of May; if the committee can take action in May, there is still a chance for passage in July; any further delay will lead to a deadlock. The industry is also feeling the pressure. More than 100 crypto companies signed an open letter last week, directly pressuring the Senate Banking Committee to hold a markup hearing as soon as possible—the existence of this letter itself illustrates how anxious the industry is about the stalled progress. In addition to CLARITY, the Senate must handle two other top priorities before Memorial Day: the House DHS appropriations bill and the confirmation vote for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. The crypto bill must find space within the gaps of these agendas, which is no easy task. House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill sent relatively optimistic signals in an interview with CoinDesk earlier this month, stating that the House version has found solutions for major points of contention such as stablecoins and DeFi sales practices, and that the Senate should be able to reach a consensus. He said, "I think the Senate has drawn heavily on the House's work in both the FIT21 and CLARITY versions, which is very clear in the Senate Agriculture Committee's markup draft and the Senate bill draft." But the market's view is significantly more pessimistic. On Polymarket, the probability of CLARITY passing this year has slid from its previous peak of 70% to 38-50%, a drop of nearly half. The consensus among analysts is similar: "The probability of passage in 2026 is about 50-50, or perhaps even lower; the uncertainty stems from the continuous procedural pressure." The main point of contention is the regulatory framework for stablecoin yield—specifically how to define the interest attributes of stablecoins, a point on which the banking industry regulatory camp and the crypto-native camp have yet to converge. In March of this year, Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks reached a compromise, and the White House intervened to coordinate, but this direction ultimately failed to advance to the formal markup process. Beyond this, several other undisclosed points of contention remain unresolved. The most understated yet critical warning now lies at the bottom of this legislative marathon: even without CLARITY, the crypto industry will survive—but it will remain highly unstable. Currently, the SEC's friendly attitude toward crypto mostly remains at the level of staff statements, informal guidance, and administrative discretion. None of these are laws. If the next administration shifts its stance, a single executive order could overturn all current

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