Brent Crude Oilの価格は32%上昇する可能性があり、その理由は今回Iranではない

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Brent crude oil price has been carving an inverse head and shoulders since late March 2026. A confirmed break above the neckline projects a 32% rally. The bullish setup is no longer dependent on the Iran war that originally lifted prices. Iran has cooled off. The April 8 ceasefire is fragile but in place. Trump has not re-escalated militarily despite rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal. Hormuz traffic is partially resuming. Yet three signals that operate independently of the Iran cycle still point to a Brent rally. Brent Forms a Decisively Bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders The Brent crude oil price chart has been building an inverse head and shoulders pattern since late March. The structure is a classic bullish reversal formed by three lows, with the middle low (the head) sitting below the two outer lows (the shoulders). Want more insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Newsletter here. A confirmed daily close above the neckline traditionally projects a measured move equal to the height of the pattern. For Brent, that projection currently maps to a 32% rally from the breakout point. The chart alone does not tell you whether the breakout will happen. For that, the next signal sits in the futures curve. Oil Backwardation Refuses to Normalize Even as Peace Talks Progress The futures curve signal sits in the spread between the front-month and second-month Brent contracts. Traders track it as BRN1 minus BRN2. That spread is called calendar backwardation. When the prompt month trades above the next month, the market is saying physical barrels are scarce today. The opposite condition is contango, where the next month trades above the prompt and barrels are plentiful. In early 2026, before the Iran war began, the spread averaged $0.24. The market was loosely supplied. By early April, after the Strait of Hormuz closure, the spread peaked above $10. That was a market in full panic. Today the spread sits at $3.85. That is roughly 8x the pre-war baseline. This is what nobody is talking about. During the April 14 slump on Iran-US ceasefire hopes, this spread should have collapsed back toward $0.50. It did not. It built a base near current levels and stayed elevated. The physical market is saying scarcity exists independently of the Iran news cycle. Even as peace talks progress, refiners are still paying a premium for prompt barrels. That is structural tightness, not war tightness. As long as this spread holds above $2.66, the inverse head and shoulders has fundamental backing. A drop in calendar backwardation below $2.66 would weaken the bullish thesis significantly. Oil Options Position Bullish as China Keeps Buying US-based investors trading the United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) ETF have been quietly positioning for upside. A put-call ratio measures how many bearish put options are open relative to bullish call options. A reading below 0.5 typically indicates strong bullish positioning. BNO’s open interest put-call ratio sits at 0.16. The volume ratio sits at 0.30. Both readings are deeply call-heavy. The slightly higher volume ratio, as compared to early May when it was 0.17, means recent option flow has included some put buying. That likely reflects existing long-call holders hedging upside bets, not new bearish positioning. The implied volatility ranking adds the second signal. BNO’s implied volatility sits in the 90th percentile of the past twelve months. The options market is pricing the largest expected price swings in a year. The catalyst sitting behind this positioning is not the Iran war. It is the world’s largest oil importer. China imported a record 11.99 million barrels per day in early 2026, nearly 16% above the previous year. The country has been adding roughly one million barrels per day to its strategic and commercial reserves since March 2025. China is building 169 million barrels of new storage capacity through 2026. This demand exists regardless of Iran. China started its stockpiling campaign before the war began, continued through it, and shows no signs of stopping after a ceasefire. The world’s largest oil importer is removing supply from the global market at record pace, and that is the structural force the options market is positioning around. Brent Crude Oil Price Holds Above All Major EMAs Brent crude oil price trades at $104.93. The market remains above all four of its key daily moving averages. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) sits at $103.46. The 50-day is at $97.65. An exponential moving average smooths price action over a set period, weighted toward recent data. The 100-day is at $88.63. The 200-day is at $80.36. The structure is bullish across every timeframe. Support stacks underneath the current price. The first level is the 0.236 Fibonacci zone at $102.72, aligning with the 20-day EMA. A daily close below that level would weaken the short-term bullish setup. Below that, $95.78 represents the right shoulder low. A break under $95.78 would weaken the inverse head and shoulders pattern considerably. The trend-defining support is $86.02. That level marks the head of the pattern. Only a break under $86.02 would invalidate the broader bullish structure. On the upside, a reclaim of $113.95 opens $118.90. A confirmed breakout above the neckline projects toward $154.26, the 32% measured move target from the inverse head and shoulders. The possible price rise is also expected to impact key oil stocks. Brent crude oil price is locked between $102.72 support and $113.95 breakout resistance. A daily close above $113.95 confirms the bullish reversal toward $154.26. A close below $95.78 weakens the entire setup.

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