CryptoQuant：比特幣牛熊指標自 2023 來首度「閃綠」，Arthur Hayes 喊話：突破 9 萬鎂迎大爆發

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Is a Bitcoin bottom-fishing signal emerging? CryptoQuant’s "Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator" has flashed "green" for the first time since March 2023, signaling an early bull market and suggesting that the deep bear phase may be over. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has doubled down, asserting that BTC has confirmed its bottom at $60,000 and, if it breaks through $90,000, it will surge toward its all-time high of $126,000. However, experts warn that the $82,000 resistance remains formidable and caution against viewing data indicators as a "crystal ball" for guaranteed profits. (Context: How much longer can MicroStrategy’s "sell stock to hoard Bitcoin" strategy last? Delphi Digital warns: If BTC moves sideways, a debt snowball crisis may loom.) (Background: Bitcoin’s break above $82,000 is a "short squeeze"! Wintermute warns: Spot volume hits a two-year low; keep a close eye on Fed leadership changes and CPI impact.) After months of consolidation and macroeconomic uncertainty, the Bitcoin (BTC) market has finally received a long-awaited structural bullish signal on-chain. According to a recent report by blockchain data analytics firm CryptoQuant, its renowned "Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator" has exited the bear market zone and turned "green" for the first time since March 2023, entering what is known as the "early bull" phase. CryptoQuant on-chain market analyst Julio Moreno wrote this Wednesday that this shift in the indicator carries significant market implications: "Historically, this is an important 'regime-change' signal." "When the indicator moves out of the bear market territory and into the early bull market zone, it usually suggests that the worst of the correction phase is over and the market structure is beginning to recover." Moreno emphasized that the current moment in May 2026 is critical. Bitcoin’s behavior no longer resembles that of a deep bear market asset, and the recovery of the 30-day moving average suggests that underlying momentum is improving. However, he also admitted that while the indicator’s shift to green successfully triggered strong bull trends in 2019 and early 2023, a "false positive" occurred in March 2022, after which the market fell into a deeper decline. Regarding this data reversal, Quantum Economics founder and former eToro senior market analyst Mati Greenspan remains cautiously optimistic. He believes the indicator is effective at identifying "when Bitcoin stops behaving like a bear market asset," but notes it is a state-switching indicator rather than a "crystal ball" that can predict the future. Greenspan pointed out that true bullish confirmation requires sustained demand, liquidity, and market acceptance at higher price levels: "So all eyes are now on price action to confirm its validity." In fact, Bitcoin is currently locked in an intense tug-of-war reminiscent of 2022. Although it has rebounded 35% from the $60,000 low in February of this year and on-chain indicators are recovering, Bitcoin has repeatedly attempted to break the $82,000 resistance level this month without successfully holding it. Moreno added that to confirm this bull signal, Bitcoin must overcome the "exhaustion" currently appearing in secondary indicators, especially given the neutral Fear & Greed Index and the complex macroeconomic backdrop. Despite the mixed on-chain data, market heavyweights have already signaled their bullish stance. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, while not directly citing CryptoQuant’s indicator, strongly echoed the view that the "cycle has turned." Hayes is convinced that Bitcoin found the absolute bottom for this cycle at $60,000 earlier this year. He boldly predicts that $90,000 will be the next key trigger point—once Bitcoin breaks this level, the rally will become "explosive," heading straight toward its previous all-time high of $126,000. Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam, provided an objective note on this data frenzy: "On-chain indicators like MVRV or NUPL were never designed to be precise trading signals. They are better viewed as behavioral frameworks that help us understand where Bitcoin sits within the broader liquidity cycle."

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原始資訊

ID：7c3f5c2d1e

來源：動區 BlockTempo

發佈：2026-05-12 15:27:29

分類：bullish · 導出分類 bullish

標的：未指定

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