「99% 山寨幣終將歸零」Arthur Hayes：立法救不了幣圈，流動性才是王道

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Arthur Hayes questions the substantive contribution of the bill to crypto assets At the Consensus Miami 2026 conference held in Miami, the cryptocurrency industry is immersed in an optimistic atmosphere regarding breakthroughs in U.S. market structure legislation. However, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, poured cold water on this craze during his speech at CoinDesk Live. He explicitly pointed out that the CLARITY Act provides no substantive benefit to Bitcoin or true crypto assets. This bill is essentially designed for the power elite who own centralized companies. For those running centralized businesses, seeking a "Regulatory Moat" to protect their operations is logical, which is the main reason these companies lobby politicians to gain regulatory support. But from a decentralized perspective, the delineation of regulatory scope does not change the value proposition of Bitcoin. He emphasized that the reason Bitcoin possesses value is that it exists outside the traditional banking system and possesses independent utility. This allows Bitcoin to maintain a high level of around $82,000 even under regulatory pressure, avoiding the fate of going to zero. Unveiling the core of Bitcoin's value: Fiat Money liquidity is the only driving force Regarding the price volatility of cryptocurrencies, Arthur Hayes proposed a minimalist theoretical framework. He believes the only factor affecting Bitcoin's value proposition is the liquidity of Fiat Money, specifically manifested as the growth of the Fiat Money supply. He threw a core question to the audience at the conference: How much Fiat Money is currently in the market? How much will be added in the future? And what is the rate of growth? According to Hayes' observations, there is a high positive correlation between Bitcoin and the scale of Fiat Money printing. He reviewed the financial policies of past U.S. administrations, pointing out that the bailout of banks during the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent massive money printing were the beginning of Bitcoin's takeoff. Recent events such as the stimulus plans during the COVID pandemic, the New Green Deal promoted by Joe Biden, and the global economic changes caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict have all significantly boosted the value of Bitcoin and physical assets like gold. As tools to circumvent the limitations of the regulatory system, the value of such assets stems from the fact that they are not affiliated with any regulatory regime. When the Fed's balance sheet expanded to nearly $7 trillion, the price of Bitcoin experienced explosive growth. This proves that the key to determining price is liquidity, while political maneuvering is irrelevant. CLARITY Act progress stalls; regulatory framework may become a moat for centralized enterprises The CLARITY Act, currently deadlocked in the Senate, aims to clarify whether tokens fall under the jurisdiction of the SEC or the CFTC, and to establish a federal-level digital asset framework. Supporters believe this will end the chaos of "regulation by enforcement" that has persisted for years, providing clear rules of the game for exchanges, issuers, and investors. However, Arthur Hayes warned that the clarity gained through political compromise often favors banks, large exchanges, and compliant intermediaries. For DeFi development teams, non-custodial developers, or offshore-first crypto projects, such regulations may instead form strict constraints. The current point of contention in the bill focuses on the pricing of stablecoin rewards. According to the latest compromise proposal, the Senate intends to prohibit bank-like deposit interest rewards, allowing only activities related to payments, transfers, or platform usage. This compromise is crucial to the progress of the bill because traditional banks fear that high-yield stablecoins will drain deposits. Although the CLARITY Act passed the House of Representatives with bipartisan support in July 2025, it still faces a 60-vote threshold in the Senate, committee review, and reconciliation with the House version. If the deliberation process drags into the 2026 election cycle, the likelihood of the bill being passed will be significantly reduced. 99% of Altcoins will face "creative destruction" In addition to macroeconomic analysis of regulation and liquidity, Arthur Hayes also expressed profound views on the Altcoins market. He predicts that approximately 99% of Altcoins in the market will eventually go to zero. Hayes explained that this is a natural market cycle and does not mean the crypto ecosystem will collapse. He used the S&P 500 as a comparison, pointing out that since 1929, about 98% of the companies in the index have been delisted or replaced. This "Productive Destruction" has been a norm in financial markets for a long time. In the crypto market, weak projects will be eliminated over time, while strong and innovative projects will stand out, driving the continuous evolution of the entire ecosystem. Although Hayes accurately predicted the rise of AI-related tokens in 2024 and 2025, and witnessed a more than 450% increase in Zcash ($ZEC) over the past year, he still reminds

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來源：區塊客

發佈：2026-05-10 03:00:31

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