市場極度悲觀！比特幣重演 2022 年熊市？分析師：關鍵支撐看 7 萬美元

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On-chain data analysis firm CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin's rebound momentum has once again been thwarted, with price action showing a high degree of similarity to the bear market of March 2022. Amid weakening demand and cooling capital momentum, investor sentiment has entered an "extremely pessimistic" ice age, suggesting that this round of correction may not be over yet. CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno noted in a report released on Wednesday that although Bitcoin recently experienced a rebound, it encountered resistance after approaching the "200-day moving average" at $82,400, subsequently retracing to a low of $76,000. Julio Moreno emphasized that this trend "perfectly replicates" the bear market misery of March 2022. Back then, after Bitcoin rebounded 43% from its bottom, it also failed at the 200-day moving average before falling into a downtrend; this time, after a sharp rally of about 37% from its April 2026 low, Bitcoin has once again hit this invisible wall of pressure. He further explained: In a bear market structure, the 200-day moving average has always been the dividing line between a "Relief Rally" and the "resumption of a downtrend." Julio Moreno pointed out that whether in March 2022 or now, as long as Bitcoin cannot strongly break through the 200-day moving average, historical experience shows it is the strongest technical signal that the "bear market structure remains intact." Buying interest freezes! Bitcoin demand falls into contraction Currently, what worries analysts most is not just the technical resistance, but also the simultaneous deterioration of demand. Julio Moreno stated that the main driver behind Bitcoin's strong rally in April and May was speculative buying from the derivatives market. However, after Bitcoin surged past the $82,000 mark, this perpetual contract speculative frenzy suddenly decelerated as traders rushed to take profits and close positions. At the same time, the "spot market buying" valued by general investors is shrinking even faster than in the derivatives market, and even Wall Street institutional capital has begun to retreat, with US Bitcoin spot ETFs shifting from net buyers to net sellers. Data shows that these ETFs set a brilliant record of aggressively accumulating 64,000 BTC within 30 days in early May, but have recently net sold about 4,000 BTC. Regarding this sudden and fierce sell-off, Bitfinex analysts bluntly stated that this confirms the short-lived rebound earlier this year was actually built on a fragile foundation of "insufficient structural capital." In addition, the "Coinbase Premium Index," seen as a bellwether for US capital trends, remained in negative territory during the rebound in April and May and the subsequent retracement. Julio Moreno explained that a negative premium (discount) means that US institutions and retail armies have not yet returned to the market. Historical experience shows that a truly lasting Bitcoin bull market is almost certainly accompanied by strong support from the Coinbase premium. Key defense retreats to $70,000; will unrealized profits hitting zero become an opportunity for "market support"? Under the pressure of various negative factors, CryptoQuant's "Bull Score Index" has plummeted from a previously healthy level of 40 to the 20 range, falling into the "extremely pessimistic" zone. Julio Moreno pointed out that this coincides with data from February to March 2026, when Bitcoin fell to between $60,000 and $66,000. Based on historical patterns, when the index hovers between 0 and 20, it is often followed by "further price discovery to the downside" or a "prolonged consolidation." Where should the bulls retreat to next? Julio Moreno believes that if this price correction continues to test lower levels, $70,000 will be a crucial level that determines the outcome. This price point is also the "trader realized price." In past bear market phases (including the rebounds in October 2025 and January 2026), this indicator has played a key role as support and resistance multiple times. Once the price falls back to near $70,000, the unrealized profits on the books of short-term traders will hit zero or even turn into losses. Julio Moreno believes that this will actually reduce the market's willingness to sell, helping to attract long-term capital to enter and buy the dip, thereby stabilizing the price. As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $77,859, up about 1% in the past 24 hours, with a heavy atmosphere of market wait-and-see.

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ID：e5258d362d

來源：區塊客

發佈：2026-05-21 04:33:05

分類：zh_news · 導出分類 zh

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