Bitcoin valuation to hit $2.3 million? Bitwise: Geopolitics and AI to trigger a new altseason

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Bitwise executives are bullish on the dual value of Bitcoin as digital gold and an international settlement tool, predicting that geopolitical instability will drive its long-term price target higher. (Context: Bitwise's 2025 Top 10 Predictions: BTC, ETH, SOL hitting new highs, the number of countries holding Bitcoin doubling, 5 crypto unicorns IPOing...) (Background: 2026 won't be a bear market? Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle and hit new all-time highs) Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen pointed out that a $1 million valuation for Bitcoin might be too conservative. Their reasoning: Bitcoin is not just a store of value; it is effectively both digital gold and a future global settlement asset, especially as the world gradually loses trust in the traditional monetary system. Below are the highlights of the conversation. Matt: I remain relatively optimistic about the market. Previously, the market direction was completely skewed—negative funding rates and heavy put options—but the market got trapped and then rebounded. It is currently holding steady here. I pointed out that if we can maintain the level around $75,000, I would be very excited about the trend for the second half of the year. So, I am optimistic. We have passed Tax Day now, which was the turning point I mentioned before. I pointed out that the inflows are looking pretty good. Ryan: It feels great. I am extremely bullish. And this is truly a very exciting time. I just went to Paris Blockchain Week last week. It was full of passion, with many great opportunities. There are both crypto-native companies doing very well and working on exciting things, as well as many institutions and UK regulators present. Matt: The main takeaway is that Q1 was terrible. My experience with these reports is that Ryan and his team compile the report and send it to me for review when it's almost ready. Usually, when I look at the data, I see some data going up, some going down, some assets rising, and some falling. But in Q1, almost everything crashed. Every major crypto asset saw double-digit declines, and most major crypto stocks also saw double-digit declines. Almost every on-chain metric you can look at dropped significantly. The only "silver lining" was some good news on the stablecoin front. We have been doing this quarterly report for three or four years, and this is the only report we have ever produced where the data was "down across the board." On the other hand, the news flow is consistently bullish. When the market was down, Morgan Stanley launched a Bitcoin ETF. When the market was down, Goldman Sachs launched a Bitcoin ETF, and the US SEC released a token framework. What really struck me is that this data is backward-looking. Looking back, it was indeed terrible. But the question is, all the news flow is forward-looking. Will it pull up into Q2? I pointed out that this is what people are betting on in the second quarter, which is why the market has seen a rebound in the past few weeks. Ryan: I think Matt is right. Usually, when you look at this report, you see broad data. You see price and fundamentals showing a trend, and the news more or less echoes that. But here, a huge divergence has emerged, which you don't usually see. Except for stablecoins, tokenization, and some Polymarket (prediction market) data that should theoretically be rising, the entire market is indeed falling. It is worth noting that the starting point at the beginning of this year was relatively high (compared to the end of Q1), but since the end of Q1, the situation for cryptocurrencies has been very good. If you take the Iran conflict as the midpoint of Q1, since the conflict broke out, we have outperformed other major asset classes, and it feels quite good. So I think the uniqueness of this quarter lies in its starting point, which contains many sharp fluctuations and indicator changes. But I pointed out that in the long run, the indicators we have been focusing on, whether month-over-month or year-over-year, are significantly higher than in the past. But you also encounter this quarterly volatility, which can feel particularly bleak in a bear market. Ryan: In this report, RWA is a truly remarkable chart. A few years ago, it wasn't even in our report. Even if we had it in our 2024 report, the tokenized real-world assets were less than $2 billion. Over the past two years, this number has grown to nearly $30 billion, more than 10x, and has seen amazing growth since the beginning of 2025. Furthermore, the range of tokenized asset types is expanding. For a long time, it was basically just Treasury bills

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