Gemini secures CFTC derivatives license, enters prediction market to challenge Kalshi and Polymarket

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Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by brothers Cameron Winklevoss and Tyler Winklevoss (US stock ticker: GEMI), has recently successfully obtained a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This key entry ticket not only allows Gemini to step into the highly regulated derivatives sector but also signals their official entry into the most rapidly growing and fiercely competitive battlefield in the crypto space—prediction markets. After obtaining the DCO license, Gemini will be able to handle trade clearing and settlement internally, no longer needing to rely on third-party service providers, thereby gaining absolute autonomous control over the operational mechanisms and scale expansion of its prediction market products. Following the announcement, Gemini's stock price rose by approximately 7%. Prediction markets are undoubtedly one of the fastest-growing sectors in the cryptocurrency space, with trading volume exceeding $63.5 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 300%. The decentralized derivatives platform Hyperliquid is also gearing up to challenge the dominance of existing giants Kalshi and Polymarket, and traditional Wall Street capital has no intention of being absent. It is reported that the asset management firm Roundhill Investments is expected to launch the first US ETF linked to prediction markets on May 5th; additionally, two other asset management institutions are actively preparing similar products, indicating that the "event trading" craze has spread from the crypto circle to traditional capital markets. In fact, Gemini had already launched its first prediction market in December 2025 through another affiliated company, Gemini Titan, and obtained a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the CFTC. Now holding both DCM and DCO licenses, Gemini stated that the company is ready to build an "all-encompassing trading ecosystem," with a business footprint spanning sports, cryptocurrency, futures, options, and event contracts. At the same time, the company also expressed its intention to launch cryptocurrency futures, options, and perpetual contracts for US users. "Today marks a major milestone in Gemini's market expansion," founder Cameron Winklevoss said in a statement, defining this progress as an important step toward the company's grand blueprint of building a financial services "Super App." In February of this year, Gemini publicly announced that it would exit the UK, EU, and Australian markets and lay off approximately 25% of its staff, while clearly stating that it would focus entirely on the US and enter the prediction market. At the time, the two founders stated: The reality is that the US has the most powerful capital markets in the world, and this has always been Gemini's foundation. Our core belief is that the scale of future prediction markets will be on par with, or even exceed, today's traditional capital markets.

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