Brazil has completely banned prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, citing "investor protection" as the reason.

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The regulatory storm facing prediction markets globally continues to expand. According to local media reports, the Brazilian government has issued a comprehensive ban on prediction markets and gambling platforms, making platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi currently inaccessible within Brazil. According to a resolution issued by the Central Bank of Brazil, these platforms do not comply with local derivatives trading regulations and pose risks to investor protection and market integrity. The Central Bank of Brazil stated: Any derivative contracts offered or traded within the country are strictly prohibited if their underlying assets involve the following types: real sports events, online virtual gaming events, as well as various real or virtual events related to politics, elections, society, culture, and entertainment. Any underlying asset deemed by securities regulators to lack economic or financial indicator significance is prohibited from being traded. According to Folha de S.Paulo, Brazil's largest newspaper, Brazilian Deputy Finance Minister Dario Durigan noted that this action has blocked approximately 28 platforms in total. He stated that in the face of the increasingly rampant trend of online gambling, this move is one of the broad measures taken by the government to protect the "hard-earned money" of the Brazilian public. Data from Polymarket shows that the platform has been blocked in over 30 countries globally, including restrictions due to sanctions from the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), as well as in countries such as Portugal, France, Belgium, Australia, the UK, Italy, and Singapore. However, in some countries, only specific markets are prohibited; for example, Taiwan strictly forbids prediction betting markets involving political and election results. Unlike the defensive stance taken by most countries, the U.S. attitude toward prediction markets has shifted significantly in recent years. In particular, Kalshi's victory in its 2024 lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which sought to open trading for election-related contracts, became a key turning point. This victory not only cleared obstacles for Kalshi but also effectively opened the door for platforms like Polymarket to return to the U.S. market. Today, the CFTC's attitude toward such prediction markets has softened significantly and become more inclusive, with the agency even launching counterattacks and lawsuits against several state governments attempting to ban prediction markets. However, resistance from U.S. local governments remains strong. Just last Friday, Wisconsin became the latest state to "fire a shot," filing lawsuits directly against Kalshi, the well-known brokerage Robinhood, the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, alleging that the sports prediction contracts offered by these platforms have seriously violated the state's commercial gambling ban. This tug-of-war between prediction markets and traditional regulation is clearly far from over.

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